50 Things That Made The Modern Economy

50 Things That Made The Modern Economy

Tim Harford
Tim Harford

Tim Harford tells the fascinating stories of inventions, ideas and innovations which have helped create the economic world.

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Episodes

Introducing 13 Minutes to the Moon Season 2

March 9, 2020
Episode Summary
The podcast begins with an introduction to the new season of "13 Minutes to the Moon". This season will tell the story of the Apollo 13 mission in 1970, when an explosion occurred onboard the spacecraft as it was headed to the moon. The three astronauts - Jim Lovell, Jack Swigert, and Fred Haise - were 200,000 miles from Earth when the explosion happened. In the first few seconds after the explosion, no one knew exactly what had gone wrong. The astronauts reported that oxygen tank two had lost pressure and they were venting gas into space. Communication with mission control in Houston revealed the spacecraft was rapidly losing oxygen and power. The lives of the three astronauts were now in grave danger. Over the next four days, the astronauts and thousands of engineers on the ground worked nonstop to try to save the mission. As each hour passed, the chance of getting the crew back to Earth alive seemed to diminish. The astronauts were running out of oxygen, dealing with extreme cold temperatures, and being poisoned by their own exhaled carbon dioxide that was building up inside the spacecraft. Yet through it all, the astronauts and NASA team never gave up. They found creative ways to solve each new crisis that arose, improvising solutions no one could have imagined when the mission began. The final episode will reveal how teamwork and determination somehow turned this near-tragedy into one of NASA's finest hours.

Gutenberg press

March 2, 2020
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses Johannes Gutenberg and his invention of the printing press in the 15th century. Gutenberg developed a system using movable metal type that allowed books and other materials to be mass-produced for the first time. Gutenberg carved metal punches with raised letterforms, which were used to stamp matrices containing the depressed letter. The matrices were then filled with molten metal alloy to cast the movable type. This allowed thousands of pieces of durable, reusable type to be created. Gutenberg used his press to print beautiful editions of the Bible, which were praised for their clarity. More importantly, his invention dramatically reduced the cost of producing books. The printing press led to a surge in the output of books and printed materials. The economics of printing also gave rise to a new business model and industry. Printers operated for-profit businesses outside the traditional guild system. Merchants provided financing and distribution. The industry was highly competitive. While Gutenberg struggled financially, his press had revolutionary impacts. The ideas of Martin Luther and other Protestant reformers spread rapidly thanks to the printing press, contributing to the Reformation. This shows how a new technology can accelerate the spread of information. So in summary, Gutenberg's printing press enabled mass production of written works, greatly reduced costs, transformed the book industry, and facilitated the rapid spread of information, ideas, and reforms.

Slot machines

February 24, 2020
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the history and impact of slot machines. It begins by telling the story of Molly, who went from earning wages by dispensing change for slot machines as a teenager to compulsively feeding her paychecks into the slots as a middle-aged adult. The podcast explains how slot machines have evolved from simple mechanical devices in the late 1800s into sophisticated computerized systems today. Modern slots are designed to maximize "time on device" rather than giving players a chance to win big. They provide constant sensory stimulation and frequent small payouts to keep players engaged. According to anthropologist Natasha Dow Schull, who has studied slots for decades, many players like Molly are not motivated by the prospect of winning. They enter a trance-like "zone" where they are absorbed in the experience itself. Schull relates the disturbing example of a man having a heart attack at a slot machine while nearby players are unfazed and keep gambling. The podcast argues slot machines leverage insights from psychology, like B.F. Skinner's experiments with intermittent reinforcement, to make them addictive. Slot designers are constantly innovating to build better "mousetraps" and attract more players. In the last section, the podcast suggests slot psychology has spread from casinos to our smartphones. People can become absorbed in their phones just like slots, driven by unpredictable social media notifications and feedback. Tech companies maximize "time on device" to show more ads, much like casinos maximizing play time. While few become as addicted as Molly, many can relate to losing track of time while staring at their phones.

Dams

February 3, 2020
Episode Summary
Dams have been built for thousands of years to help manage water resources. The ancient Egyptians built dams like the Saad el-Kafara near Cairo over 5,000 years ago, though it failed quickly after construction. Dams allow storage of water from rainstorms and floods so it can be used during droughts. This water management is crucial since rainfall is often seasonal or unpredictable. However, dams also come with major risks. They can fail catastrophically and cause deadly flooding, like the Banqiao Dam in China which failed in 1975, killing an estimated quarter of a million people. Dams can also trigger earthquakes and landslides. Even in wealthy nations like France and Italy, dam failures have killed hundreds or thousands of people. Attacks on dams are now considered war crimes because of their devastating impacts if destroyed. Beyond disaster risks, dams also reshape the environment in harmful ways. The High Aswan Dam in Egypt led to explosions of water hyacinth, disease outbreaks, polluted irrigation, and coastal erosion. Over 100,000 people were displaced by the dam's reservoir. Dams create winners and losers, destabilizing traditional sharing of water resources between communities. Compensating displaced people is often not a priority. Instead, political leaders favor dams as symbols of national power and prestige. From the Soviet Union's Dneprostroi to China's Three Gorges Dam, massive dams represent grand strategic visions rather than equitable sharing of costs and benefits. But their impacts on people and the environment are complex. If the benefits of dams cannot be fairly distributed, they may not be worth the costs overall.

Tulips

January 27, 2020
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the phenomenon of tulip mania in the Netherlands in the 1600s. Tulips were introduced to Europe in the 16th century and the Dutch became enamored with the beautiful flowers. Wealthy Dutch merchants began collecting rare tulip bulbs, paying exorbitant prices for them. The most expensive bulb on record was one called Semper Augustus, which sold for around 5,200 guilders in 1637. This was over 20 times the annual income of a skilled worker and worth well over a million dollars today. Stories circulated about the craze, including one about a sailor who mistakenly ate a valuable bulb he thought was an onion. However, these stories were likely exaggerated. The high prices of the rarest bulbs were driven by demand from the nouveau riche merchants seeking to outdo each other in displays of wealth and rarity. As the bulbs multiplied over the years, prices were bound to fall. This likely explains the dramatic drop in bulb prices in February 1637, rather than an actual "bursting" of a speculative bubble. The tulip craze caused some financial pain when people defaulted on promissory notes for future bulb purchases. But the Dutch economy continued thriving afterwards. The event is often cited as an example of an asset bubble, when prices are driven up not by intrinsic value but by speculative frenzy. However, the high prices may have been rational given the reproduction potential of the rarest bulbs. The mania illustrates the difficulty of identifying bubbles, which only become clear in hindsight.

Sanitary towel

January 20, 2020
Episode Summary
The podcast episode is titled "Sanitary Towel". It explores the history and development of feminine hygiene products like sanitary pads and tampons. The story begins by explaining how these products were taboo to discuss in the early 20th century. Words like "Kotex" were used as codewords so that men would not know what they referred to. Women often had to make do with homemade solutions before disposable pads were invented. The key innovation was cellucotton, a material originally used for bandages during World War I. After the war, Kimberly Clarke realized nurses were using it for menstrual pads and launched Kotex pads. Although controversial, Kotex pads were a hit with women who needed more convenience as they entered the workforce. Tampons and menstrual cups followed. Despite initial taboos, ads for feminine hygiene products soon bombarded the public. Some complained about the "Kotex age," but the products had entered the mainstream. Today the market is worth billions in the U.S. alone. However, in parts of the developing world, stigma remains due to lack of access to clean water and affordable options. Indian inventor Arunachalam Muruganantham worked to create simple pad-making machines to help women in India. But his efforts were seen as too humiliating by his own family, showing the stigma persists. Access to menstrual products can help girls stay in school and have opportunities. The "Kotex age" has not yet arrived for many.

Wardian case

January 13, 2020
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the invention of the Wardian case, a small glass enclosure used to transport plants over long distances. The Wardian case was invented in the 1830s by Nathaniel Bagshaw Ward, a doctor and fern enthusiast living in London. Ward was having difficulty growing ferns in the polluted London air, so he experimented with enclosing them in glass cases. To his surprise, the ferns thrived in the sealed environment without needing any watering. Ward realized his invention could enable the safe transport of plants over long sea voyages. At the time, many plants died when shipped overseas due to lack of light and exposure to salt spray. Ward tested his cases by shipping plants to Australia and back - the plants arrived perfectly healthy. He published a book explaining how the Wardian case enabled plants to survive journeys. The Wardian case went on to reshape global agriculture and trade. It enabled the spread of crops like the Cavendish banana around the world. The cases helped Britain break China's monopoly on tea by allowing for tea plants to be smuggled out of China and grown in India. They also facilitated the spread of cinchona trees, the source of quinine, from South America to Asia to help prevent malaria. This made it safer for Europeans to colonize the tropics. The Wardian case had an enormous impact, far beyond what its inventor imagined. Ward thought it could help purify polluted air for human health. Instead, it transformed the transportation of plants and crops, enabling the spread of agriculture across continents and empires. A simple glass enclosure ended up radically changing global trade and politics.

Fast food franchise

January 6, 2020
Episode Summary
The McDonald's fast food franchise began in 1954 when Ray Kroc encouraged brothers Dick and Mac McDonald to expand their small hamburger restaurant in San Bernardino, California. The McDonald brothers were initially reluctant, content with their peaceful life watching sunsets on the porch. But Kroc saw potential for growth. While the McDonald brothers were brilliant at innovating efficient food preparation methods, they lacked business acumen. They didn't patent their ingenious kitchen gadgets and freely shared operational details with competitors. Their early franchising efforts were also haphazard, merely providing blueprints and training with no ongoing support. Kroc brought a new franchise model emphasizing standardization through strict rules and procedures. This allowed rapid expansion while maintaining quality control. Kroc also recognized the benefits of using motivated franchisees to provide local knowledge and effort. The franchise model became a win-win, with franchisors benefiting from franchisees' capital and labor while franchisees capitalized on the brand name and operating system. The McDonald's franchise system pioneered the modern business format franchise. It demonstrated how franchising could enable ambitious entrepreneurs like Kroc to leverage the skills of people like the McDonald brothers. Assigning responsibilities according to each party's strengths allowed McDonald's to grow from a single restaurant into a ubiquitous global chain.

Retirement

December 23, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast episode discusses the concept of retirement and pensions. It begins by looking at how different cultures and societies have historically treated their elderly. Some indigenous tribes like the Aceh in Paraguay would kill old women when they were no longer useful. Other tribes like the Kwah Long expected sons to strangle their mothers when their husbands died. However, many tribes were gerontocracies where the elderly were respected and cared for. The podcast explains that the modern concept of retirement, where elderly receive money from the state or employers without working, is relatively new. Pensions began with military pensions in ancient Rome, but it wasn't until the late 19th century in Germany that universal state pensions were introduced. Today, pensions are common in developed countries, although nearly a third of the world's elderly still have no pension. The episode then discusses the looming crisis in pensions systems. People are living longer while birth rates are falling, meaning fewer workers to support more retirees. The ratio of workers to retirees has fallen from 12 to 1 in the 1960s to around 4 to 1 today. This has made traditional pension plans unaffordable for employers. As a result, many have switched to less generous 401k style plans. The podcast concludes by considering potential solutions. Getting people to save more is difficult when retirement seems distant. Some believe working longer may be necessary. But the varied traditions of past societies suggest support of the elderly depends on a cold calculus of costs versus benefits. Respecting the dignity of the elderly may require accepting the rising costs of pensions.

Santa

December 16, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast episode is about the origins and economics of Christmas. It begins by describing a curious phenomenon in Japan called "Kentucky for Christmas", where people eat Kentucky Fried Chicken on Christmas Eve. This tradition began in the 1970s as a marketing gimmick by KFC. The episode then discusses how Santa Claus' red and white outfit was not created by Coca-Cola, as is commonly believed. In fact, the modern image of Santa in red and white originated in the early 1800s from Dutch traditions in New York. Writers like Washington Irving and Clement Clark Moore adapted Santa from these Dutch traditions into the jolly gift-giver known today. The podcast goes on to examine the history of commercialization around Christmas. Gift-giving became popular in America in the 1820s, and ads for Christmas presents emerged in the 1840s. The episode cites research showing that Christmas spending relative to GDP was actually much higher in the 1930s than it is today. It then analyzes the economics of Christmas spending. Overall, Christmas accounts for a small part of total yearly spending. However, for some industries like jewelry and electronics, the Christmas sales boom is very significant. Economists estimate that $60-70 billion is spent on Christmas in the US alone. Finally, the episode discusses economic research showing that a lot of Christmas spending is wasteful. Many gifts are not valued by recipients as much as they cost. Alternatives like wish lists and gift cards are somewhat better, but giving cash is likely the most efficient Christmas gift.

Sewing machine

December 9, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast episode is titled "Sewing Machine." It tells the story of how the sewing machine was invented and became a hugely successful product in the 1850s. The sewing machine was struggling to gain traction until Isaac Singer, a failed actor turned inventor, looked at improving the design in the 1850s. Singer came up with innovations like making the needle move up and down in a straight line rather than in a circle. This made the sewing machine actually work well. Singer patented his tweaks and started selling his version of the sewing machine. Singer partnered with Edward Clark, who pioneered marketing techniques like hire-purchase, allowing families to pay for the machine over time. Singer also had an army of agents to help customers use the machines. However, they faced the challenge of overcoming prejudice that women couldn't operate the machines. Singer had women demonstrate the machines in his shop window to prove they could use them. The sewing machine brought major change. It dramatically reduced the time to sew clothes from 14 hours for a shirt to just one. This meant relief for seamstresses, who were very poorly paid for endless work, as well as for wives and daughters expected to sew at home. The machines allowed women more time for family and enjoyment. Singer's marketing overcame initial doubts and made the sewing machine a hugely successful product. While driven by profit, Singer's business advanced social progress by empowering women. The biography calls it "a capitalist romance."

Hollerith punch card

December 2, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast episode is titled "Hollerith Punch Card". It tells the story of Herman Hollerith, a young German American inventor in the 1880s who designed a machine to process census data more quickly than humans could. The US government conducted a census every 10 years. In 1880, they asked 215 questions, far more than previous years. It soon became clear that tabulating all the answers would take years, delaying the next census. Hollerith realized the problem could be solved using punched cards, which had already been used to control machines like the Jacquard loom. Hollerith designed a machine that used spring-loaded pins to detect holes punched in census cards. Where a hole was found, a dial would tick up by one. This allowed census data to be tabulated far faster than by hand. The government rented Hollerith's machines for the 1890 census, saving millions of dollars and years of time. The machines also made analyzing census data easier. Punched cards were soon adopted by businesses like insurance companies and railways for bookkeeping and logistics. Hollerith's company, later known as IBM, became very successful selling tabulating machines. However, it took another century for the true data economy to emerge, fueled by the vast trails of personal data left behind whenever we use our phones or other connected devices. This allows companies like Google and Amazon to achieve the bureaucrats' old dream of near omniscience over data.

Stock option

November 25, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the issue of executive compensation and stock options. It begins by noting that the average CEO at a major American corporation is paid about 100 times as much as the average worker. In the early 1990s, Bill Clinton campaigned on a promise to address this gap by changing tax laws so that salaries over $1 million would no longer be tax deductible for companies. However, this change did not have the intended effect. By the time Clinton left office, the ratio of CEO to worker pay had ballooned to over 300 to 1. The podcast then provides some historical context by telling the story of the ancient Greek philosopher Thales, who made a fortune by purchasing options to use olive presses after predicting a bumper olive harvest. This illustrates the concept of a stock option - the right but not obligation to buy or sell shares at a specified price. In the 1990s, economists promoted the idea of compensating executives with stock options as a solution to the principal-agent problem and a way to incentivize executives to perform well. However, stock options were found to encourage executives to maximize short-term share prices rather than focus on the long-term health of the company. The podcast argues that stock options do not actually serve as an effective way to link executive pay to performance. Directors who are supposed to negotiate executive compensation on behalf of shareholders often have conflicts of interest that lead them to approve excessive pay packages. Shareholders have attempted to assert more control through institutional investors like pension funds, but the link between pay and performance remains elusive. There is little evidence on optimal approaches to executive compensation, but the gap between executive and worker pay continues to provoke public anger.

Fundraising appeal

November 18, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the history and evolution of fundraising for charities. It notes that charity has become big business, though there is little good data on exactly how big. In the UK, people donate about 54 pence for every 100 pounds earned, which is more than they spend on items like beer or bread. This means fundraisers have become economically significant like butchers and bakers. The podcast traces modern fundraising techniques back to Charles Sumner Ward in the late 19th century. He pioneered strategies like setting fundraising targets and deadlines to create a sense of urgency. His "business principles" were considered novel at the time but are now commonplace. Fundraisers today focus on engaging social media users and building a brand, rather than using images of starving children. Economists have studied the motivations behind charitable giving. The "signaling" theory suggests people donate to impress others. The "warm glow" theory proposes people give to feel good about themselves. Studies find evidence for both theories - attractive fundraisers get more donations from men, while government subsidies reduce private donations. This implies donors are not purely altruistic. Some advocate for "effective altruism," directing donations to charities that demonstrably do the most good. But additional scientific evidence seems to dampen emotional appeals that generate warm glows. Major charities also do not provide much information on effectiveness, preferring to tell compelling stories. So modern fundraising wisdom remains similar to Adam Smith's view - appeal to self-interest, not benevolence.

SWIFT

November 11, 2019
Episode Summary
SWIFT and Return the Summary Financial transactions require secure and reliable communication between banks, especially for international payments. In the 1960s, Citibank in London used vacuum tubes to send payment instructions between floors, until one day the tube became blocked, disrupting operations. The telegraph enabled long-distance communication starting in the 19th century, but was prone to errors, like when a mistranscribed message cost a Philadelphia wool broker $20,000. Banks later used telex machines, which were more efficient but complex to operate securely. By the 1970s, the need for a better cross-border system was clear. An American bank tried imposing its own proprietary system called MARTI, which European banks resisted to avoid dependence. In response, 270 banks across 15 countries created SWIFT in 1977 for standardized financial messaging. SWIFT is a Brussels-based cooperative that provides communication services on dedicated networks. It has grown to over 2,000 member banks and transmits over 6 billion annual messages. Its cooperative structure enables agreement on standards and resolution of issues. SWIFT is central to international banking, so the US government has used it to track terrorist financing and punish Iran by denying access. This "weaponized interdependence" concerns some as an inappropriate use of financial networks for geopolitical goals. But the US continues influencing pressure points like SWIFT, despite its origins as a reaction against pushy Americans.

Wedgwood

November 4, 2019
Episode Summary
Josiah Wedgwood was an entrepreneur and innovator in 18th century England. He pioneered new techniques in pottery and ceramics, creating a new kind of cream-colored pottery that impressed Queen Charlotte. She gave Wedgwood her royal patronage, allowing him to call his pottery "Queensware". This was a marketing coup for Wedgwood. Wedgwood was adept at business and marketing. He lobbied successfully for a canal to be built connecting major rivers near his pottery factory, giving him easy transportation access. He anticipated modern economic ideas like fixed versus variable costs and market segmentation. Wedgwood realized he could charge high initial prices to elites and aristocrats who wanted exclusive pottery pieces, then lower prices later to sell to the masses. Wedgwood was always innovating. He created pottery imitating ancient Etruscan styles and jasperware in distinctive pale blue with white relief decorations. His wares were coveted by aristocrats and the upper class. But Wedgwood avoided falling prey to the "Coase conjecture" - the idea that early adopters will wait for lower prices if they know the product will be discounted later. Wedgwood's elite clients kept buying because they wanted to stay ahead of fashion trends and distinguish themselves from the masses. The "trickle down theory" meant elites needed to keep buying Wedgwood's latest creations. In summary, Josiah Wedgwood was a pottery entrepreneur who pioneered innovative manufacturing and marketing techniques in 18th century England. His technical and creative innovations along with his business acumen made him highly successful selling pottery to both elites and the broader public.

Vickrey turnstile

October 21, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the problem of overcrowding on the New York City subway system in the 1950s. At peak times, the trains were packed, but at other times they ran nearly empty. To address this, the mayor commissioned a report that recommended abandoning the flat fare system in favor of variable fares based on trip length, location, and time of day. One of the authors of the report was William Vickrey, an economist who proposed using dynamic pricing to smooth demand and make better use of limited capacity. His idea was to charge higher fares at busy times and lower fares when demand was low. This would decrease crowding at rush hour and generate more revenue overall. Vickrey designed an electromechanical turnstile that could implement variable pricing by dispensing different amounts of change based on when and where passengers entered. However, this complex device was never actually built. Despite that, Vickrey's concept of peak load or dynamic pricing has had an enduring impact on economics. It is now commonly used in various industries like airlines, concerts, and taxis to align supply and demand. Although dynamic pricing can benefit providers, some consumers see it as unfair exploitation. They dislike prices rapidly rising at times of high demand. But looking ahead, variable pricing will likely spread further with smart electricity grids, road congestion charges, and other applications. The viability of Vickrey's ideas depended on waiting for technology to advance sufficiently. While his turnstile was not feasible in the 1950s, the core concept behind it has now been embraced around the world.

Bonsack machine

October 7, 2019
Episode Summary
The Bonsack machine, patented in 1881 by James Bonsack, revolutionized cigarette production. Before this invention, cigarettes were a niche product, with pipes, cigars and chewing tobacco dominating the tobacco market. Bonsack's automated cigarette rolling machine could produce 200 cigarettes a minute, vastly outpacing hand rolling production. Seeing the potential, tobacco entrepreneur James Buchanan Duke acquired a license to use Bonsack's machine. This allowed Duke to mass produce cigarettes at a low cost. However, he now faced the challenge of creating demand for all these cigarettes. Duke invested heavily in advertising and promotion, spending 20% of revenues on marketing by 1889. This advertising succeeded in transforming cigarettes into the most popular form of tobacco consumption by 1923. Some early cigarette marketing campaigns made dubious health claims about brands being less irritating or even aiding weight loss. This led to pushback from candy makers and eventually regulators. However, restrictions on health claims forced marketers to focus more on emotional branding. When products are essentially identical, branding becomes crucial for distinguishing between competitors. This insight drove the rise of iconic brands like Lucky Strike. While branding may seem harmless for products like cereal, its impact on cigarette sales is concerning. Addictive cigarettes are far deadlier than cornflakes. Restrictions on cigarette marketing in many Western nations have helped reduce smoking. However, in developing countries with looser regulations like China, slick branding continues to drive smoking rates higher. The power of branding to override facts remains as strong as ever when it comes to selling cigarettes.

Prohibition

September 30, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses prohibition in America and the role of economists in supporting it. Irving Fisher, a famous economist in the early 1900s, was a major proponent of prohibition. He claimed prohibition would boost America's economy by $6 billion, though his math was dubious. Fisher also wrongly predicted prohibition would usher in a new prosperous era for America. In reality, prohibition failed and became infamous as a farce. Historians trace the roots of prohibition to religion and class-based snobbery, not productivity concerns. Gary Becker later showed that making something illegal adds a cost that rational people weigh against benefits. So prohibition simply led to black markets and bootlegging by criminals like Al Capone, who could profit from the inflated prices. The demand for alcohol proved to be inelastic - people still paid higher black market prices. And the lack of regulations encouraged sellers to make their product more potent while cutting costs and quality. Other countries also tried bans on alcohol, with similar poor results. Public choice theory explains such failures through "bootleggers and Baptists" - moralists favoring bans align with profiteering cynics. In recent years, views on banning substances like cannabis have shifted. Nations are legalizing and taxing it, recognizing that costs can be imposed through legal channels too. Free market advocates argue taxation could eliminate the black market. Today, economists overwhelmingly oppose blanket prohibition, favoring evidence-based policies instead. The failures of alcohol prohibition provided an important economic lesson.

Interchangeable parts

September 9, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the history and impact of interchangeable parts. It centers around a demonstration in 1785 by French gunsmith Honoré Blanc at the Chateau de Vincennes. Blanc took apart 50 musket locks, mixed up their components in boxes, and then randomly reassembled them to show they were interchangeable. This was an impressive display of interchangeable parts, which allow broken items to be easily repaired by swapping in replacement parts. Thomas Jefferson witnessed the demonstration and excitedly wrote about its potential for military musket repair. However, Jefferson struggled to gain support for implementing the idea in America. Blanc also struggled to make interchangeable parts a reality. Precisely handcrafting each part was prohibitively expensive. The solution was machine tools, which had been developed in England by John Wilkinson. His boring machine created consistent, identical holes for cannon and steam engine cylinders. This enabled the mass production of interchangeable parts. The American armory in Harpers Ferry was the first to truly implement interchangeable parts and an assembly line around 1820. This "American system" went on to enable Singer's sewing machines, McCormick's reapers, and Ford's Model T. Blanc pioneered interchangeable parts but never saw their full potential realized, as he struggled financially after the French Revolution. Ultimately, machine tools enabled both interchangeable parts and mass production assembly lines, revolutionizing manufacturing.

Chatbot

August 26, 2019
Episode Summary
Robert Epstein, one of the founders of the Löbner Prize for artificial conversation, spent two months exchanging emails with a chatbot named Ivana that he thought was a Russian woman interested in a romantic relationship. Even an expert in chatbots was fooled, showing how far chatbot technology has advanced. The Löbner Prize challenges chatbots to pass the Turing test proposed by Alan Turing in 1950. In the test, a judge communicates with a human and a computer, and the computer tries to respond like a human convincingly enough to fool the judge. Turing predicted computers would be able to fool 30% of judges in just 5 minutes of conversation within 50 years, which was fairly accurate. In 2014, a chatbot named Eugene Goostman fooled some judges into thinking it was a 13-year-old Ukrainian boy. One of the first chatbots was ELIZA, created by Joseph Weizenbaum in the 1960s. ELIZA imitated a therapist by rephrasing users' statements as questions. People enjoyed conversing with ELIZA, even asking to speak to it privately. Some saw potential for chatbots like ELIZA to greatly increase the efficiency of psychotherapy. However, Weizenbaum himself worried that people would settle for poor substitutes for human interaction. Today chatbots are ubiquitous, handling simple tasks like customer service inquiries. More advanced chatbots like Babylon Health can assess medical symptoms or have conversations. Most modern chatbots don't try to seem human. Exceptions include chatbots used for unethical purposes, like having fake profiles on dating sites. Chatbots are also used to stoke outrage and spread misinformation on social media. Overall, chatbots work best when focused on simple, specialized tasks while letting humans handle complex interactions. This aligns with Adam Smith's ideas on productivity through division of labor. So automation through chatbots reshapes rather than eliminates jobs. However, we must be cautious about letting convenience and efficiency stop us from having meaningful human interactions. Rather than chatbots fooling humans, the ideal may be leveraging them to free up more time for humanity.

Fire

August 5, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast episode describes the history and impact of fire on human civilization and the modern economy. It begins by recounting Ranger Ed Pulaski's harrowing experience trying to save his team of firefighters during the Big Blow-Up forest fire in Idaho in 1910. The fire killed 86 people and burned enough wood to build 800,000 houses. This led the U.S. Forest Service to start aggressively putting out all wildfires as quickly as possible. The podcast then explains how fire has been fundamental to the modern economy. For most of Earth's history there was no fire, as it requires oxygen and fuel that only became available through living organisms hundreds of millions of years ago. Lightning strikes have been the main natural cause of wildfires. Fire shaped landscapes and evolution, enabling the spread of grasslands around 30 million years ago. The podcast discusses how difficult it is to imagine the economy before humans tamed fire. Most modern products involve metal, glass, fossil fuel energy, or other high heat industrial processes. Controlling fire allowed humans to evolve bigger brains and more complex social structures. But the transition to containing fire indoors has made people more afraid of wildfires. Climate change is increasing these fires, even as we build more homes near wilderness areas. Quickly putting out all wildfires leads to complacency and bigger blazes when fires inevitably occur. Just as with financial crises, suppressing small problems can paradoxically lead to bigger ones later. More scientific knowledge of fire ecology is needed to properly manage wildfires and reduce their risks.

RFID: The tech you’ve never heard of – but use every day

July 29, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast tells the story of Leon Theremin, the inventor of the eponymous musical instrument, the theremin. Theremin was living in the U.S. with his wife Lavinia Williams before being kidnapped and returned to the Soviet Union in 1938. He was then forced to work in a prison camp designing listening devices, including "The Thing." The Thing was a carved wooden seal of the United States presented as a gift to the U.S. ambassador in Moscow in 1945. Unbeknownst to the ambassador, it contained a listening device designed by Theremin. The device didn't require batteries or wires. It was activated by radio waves from the Soviets and would broadcast back conversations using the energy from the incoming signal. The Thing demonstrated the principles behind RFID (radio frequency identification) tags. These tags don't require their own power source. They are activated by incoming radio waves and send information back using that energy. RFID tags are now ubiquitous, used in passports, credit cards, tracking luggage, preventing shoplifting, etc. While recent years have seen more hype around smartphones and other "Internet of Things" devices, RFID continues to play an important role. It provides a cheap way to identify objects and transmit basic information to computers. The simplicity and low cost of RFID tags means they can be used to tag billions of items, quietly contributing to the Internet of Things vision.

Rubber

July 15, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the history and impact of rubber. It starts by describing a 1904 photo taken in the Congo Free State by Alice Seely Harris. The photo shows a man named Nsala looking at the severed hand and foot of his daughter. It was part of a photographic campaign exposing atrocities in the Congo. The podcast then goes back to 1834 New York and the story of Charles Goodyear. Goodyear was an optimistic inventor who was determined to find a way to improve rubber. At the time, rubber products would melt in hot weather. Goodyear experimented for years, eventually inventing vulcanization - a process that stabilized rubber by heating it with sulfur. This allowed rubber to be used for many industrial purposes. Demand for rubber grew rapidly in the late 1800s. Rubber trees were planted in Asia, but the Congo's rainforests were tapped to meet immediate needs. The Congo was essentially enslaved by King Leopold to harvest rubber. Villagers who didn't produce enough rubber would have their hands chopped off or family members killed. The horrors exposed by Alice Seely Harris eventually forced Leopold to loosen his grip on the colony. Today, over half of rubber comes from synthetic sources derived from oil. But natural rubber is still widely used, especially for vehicle tires. Rubber plantations are still causing controversy, with environmental concerns about biodiversity loss and unethical treatment of villagers. So while rubber no longer leads to the atrocities of Leopold's Congo, it continues to have complex social and environmental impacts.

CubeSat

July 8, 2019
Episode Summary
The dimensions of the new CubeSat satellites were determined by the size of a Beanie Baby toy. In 1999, Stanford professor Bob Twiggs was teaching students to design satellites. At the time, satellites were large and expensive, costing up to $500 million each. Twiggs wanted to challenge his students to think smaller. He brought a Beanie Baby to class and said the satellite had to fit inside its box. This educational exercise evolved into the practical CubeSat standard. CubeSats are about the size of a shoebox, just 10cm x 10cm x 11.35cm. They are much cheaper to build and launch than traditional satellites, costing around $100,000. CubeSats are designed to take photos of Earth from space. They use off-the-shelf smartphone components like processors and batteries. CubeSats are small enough to piggyback on large rocket launches or even launch on small private rockets. In 2017, India launched a record 104 satellites at once, including 88 tiny CubeSats owned by the company Planet. Planet now has the world's largest private satellite fleet at 140 CubeSats. They provide global coverage, taking 800,000 photos per day. CubeSats teach three economic lessons. First, cheap standardized modular components are important. Second, the Silicon Valley "fail fast" model works better than NASA's low-risk approach. With inexpensive CubeSats, you can afford to lose a few. Third, don't dismiss the public sector - NASA has quietly supported CubeSats with funding and ISS launches. Finally, CubeSats may revolutionize economic forecasting. Daily global images could provide commodity traders, crop insurers, and companies insights on supply and demand. Algorithms can already extract detailed economic information like roof types, road conditions, and aid effectiveness. CubeSats illuminate connections in the global economy by measuring pollution, deforestation, and more. Their frequent snapshots will reveal trends faster than traditional economic data.

Blockchain

June 24, 2019
Episode Summary
Paragraph 1: The podcast discusses blockchain technology and its potential to disrupt and transform industries. Blockchain operates as a distributed ledger that allows transactions to occur without centralized intermediaries. It has drawn comparisons to the early days of the internet in the 1990s, with many seeing huge potential but uncertainty around its applications. Paragraph 2: Blockchain enables transactions to be verified by a network of computers, removing the need for trusted third parties. It incentivizes participation in the network through rewards in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. The technology offers new ways for strangers to collaborate without intermediaries. It has the potential to lower costs and barriers in many situations where third parties currently manage data to enable interactions. Paragraph 3: However, blockchain also faces challenges around scalability, energy consumption, and marrying data to the real world. Removing intermediaries means losing their benefits like rectifying mistakes and resolving disputes. Trust must be placed in the technology itself. There are also limits to how valuable blockchain systems can become before incentives to attack them outweigh incentives to maintain them. Paragraph 4: While skepticism is warranted, as a new technology blockchain should be given time to overcome early difficulties. False starts are expected, but the technology may still enable new models where users control their data and interactions. The potential remains large, even if the optimal applications are still uncertain.

Pencil

June 17, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast episode is titled "Pencil" and tells the story of the humble pencil's origins and impact. The pencil is often overlooked, despite its indispensability. Henry Petroski, a historian of the pencil, notes that the pencil's erasability makes it essential for designers and engineers. The graphite allows ideas to be worked out before being finalized in ink. The pencil's graphite center is encased in wood, originally cedar. Grooves are cut into the wood so the graphite rods can be laid inside. Another piece of wood with grooves is glued on top to encase the graphite. The graphite and wood sandwich is then cut into individual pencils. In the 1950s, economist Leonard Reed published an essay from the perspective of a pencil explaining the complexity behind its simple form. The pencil highlights all the materials, processes and transportation needed to create it, arguing this reflects the power of market forces and free enterprise. The pencil metaphor was later popularized by economist Milton Friedman. He used it to argue the pencil was a product of the free market's ability to coordinate people without central control. But some critique this view, noting the role of government and corporations in supplying things like forests and railways needed to make pencils. The podcast traces the history of the pencil back 500 years. Graphite was first discovered in England's Lake District. Its usefulness for marking quickly became apparent. France imported quality English graphite until war disrupted trade. A French officer developed a way to mix clay and low-grade graphite to create pencil leads, receiving a patent from the state. So the pencil has complex origins, not a simple free market story.

Pornography

May 27, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast explores the theory that pornography has played a key role in driving the development of various technologies throughout history. It examines whether this theory holds true for innovations like the printing press, photography, film, cable TV, the internet, and more. The podcast acknowledges that pornography has been depicted in art and culture for thousands of years. However, it questions whether erotica was truly the main driving force behind early artistic and craft techniques. There is little evidence for this. With the invention of photography in the 19th century, pioneering erotic photo studios in Paris did brisk business. For a time, dirty pictures cost more than hiring a prostitute. This suggests pornography helped fund early photography's development. However, with film and movies, pornography did not drive the industry due to public exhibition. Peep show booths and VCRs in the 1960s-70s allowed private viewing and pornography thrived. Over half of early videotape sales were adult movies, helping VCRs become mainstream. The podcast argues this trend repeated with cable TV and the early internet. Pornography provided an incentive for people to pay for expensive, unreliable new technologies. As these technologies improved and dropped in price, everyday users joined. The market expanded beyond porn. So while pornography may not have been the sole driving force, it played an important role in the adoption of new technologies, especially those allowing private viewing. Its influence spurred innovation that was later applied more broadly.

Recycling

May 20, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the history and complexities of recycling. It begins by describing Nine Dragons, a massive Chinese paper recycling company that became wealthy by importing and processing recyclable materials from other countries. However, in 2017, China implemented a policy called National Sword that only allowed the import of very cleanly sorted recycling, causing the amount of waste shipped to China to plunge. This sparked a recycling crisis, forcing governments and companies to rethink their recycling systems and processes. The podcast then provides some historical context, explaining that reusing materials has long made economic sense, but the moral imperative to recycle for environmental reasons is a relatively new concept. It traces some of this attitude shift to a famous 1970s ad campaign featuring a Native American man saddened by pollution and litter. However, the ad placed responsibility on individuals rather than manufacturers and industries, which some argue was misguided. Research shows people act more wastefully when they know items are recyclable. Effective recycling requires proper incentives, subsidies, and infrastructure. The podcast concludes by discussing options for improving recycling in a post-China world. It contemplates pairing back recycling programs to only the most economically recyclable materials or using technology like AI to improve sorting. But it ultimately argues that recycling is worth doing right, and China closing its doors could motivate innovation and systemic changes to make recycling work better.

Spreadsheet

May 13, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast episode is titled "Spreadsheet" and tells the story of how the digital spreadsheet was invented. It starts by describing how in 1978, Harvard Business School student Dan Bricklin watched his accounting professor manually calculating numbers on a blackboard spreadsheet and thought there must be a better way using computers. Bricklin teamed up with Bob Frankston to create VisiCalc, the first electronic spreadsheet software. It ran on the Apple II personal computer and was an immediate sensation when released in 1979. VisiCalc allowed accounting clerks to easily edit numbers without erasing and recalculating entire spreadsheets by hand. It was considered the first "killer app" that convinced people to buy computers just to run that particular software. The podcast explains how spreadsheets like VisiCalc completely transformed accounting and finance jobs. Repetitive manual number crunching was eliminated, allowing accountants to focus on more creative, analytical work. While 400,000 accounting clerk jobs were lost in the US after 1980, 600,000 new regular accountant jobs were created. Spreadsheets drove demand for more complex numerical analysis. However, the podcast warns that spreadsheets also carry the risk of magnifying human error. Some major financial mistakes have occurred because errors in spreadsheet formulas went unnoticed. The speed and efficiency of computers can dramatically amplify even small mistakes. In conclusion, the way that spreadsheets automated routine accounting work provides an example of how future automation will reshape white-collar jobs. Tedious tasks will be handled by software, leaving humans to adapt and take on more creative roles. But we must remain diligent, as computers will unthinkingly amplify any errors in their programming.

Brick

May 6, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the ubiquity and versatility of the brick throughout history. Bricks have been used in structures for thousands of years, with some of the oldest found in Jericho dating back 9,600-10,300 years. These early bricks were simply mud loaves baked dry in the sun. The brick mold allowed for more precise brick shapes and mass production. Fired clay bricks are more durable than sun-dried mud bricks, but were expensive initially, with ancient accounts noting fired bricks cost 29 times more than mud bricks. Over time, kiln technologies improved and fired bricks became more affordable. Bricks are noted for their standard size and shape worldwide, which allows them to be easily stacked and versatile across cultures. Their uniformity enabled reuse, like medieval buildings using Roman bricks. Brick production started with traditional hand molding methods but has gradually incorporated some automation like hydraulic shovels for digging clay. However, building sites still rely heavily on skilled human bricklayers, who can lay hundreds of bricks daily. Recent robotic bricklayers like SAM and Hadrian X aim to automate the process further but have not yet replaced human workers. The podcast concludes that the essential nature of the brick has remained largely unchanged over thousands of years. Bricklayers may eventually be displaced by robots, but the brick itself endures as one of humanity's most ancient, versatile and ubiquitous building materials.

Mail order catalogue

April 29, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the history and impact of mail order catalogues. It begins by describing how Aaron Montgomery Ward was criticized in 1873 by the Chicago Tribune for his mail order business that seemed suspiciously utopian in its low prices and lack of physical stores. Ward sued the newspaper and they apologized, recognizing his innovative business model. Ward created a catalogue that listed nearly 2,000 items with just prices, no illustrations. This simple catalogue was named one of the most influential books in American history for improving middle class living standards. Ward's concept inspired competitors like Sears Roebuck, whose catalogue tried to outdo Montgomery Ward's in size and lavish illustrations. By the late 19th century, mail order companies were bringing in over $30 million per year, fueling demands to improve rural postal service. This "golden age" of mail order allowed people to buy entire kit homes by mail. While the catalogues eventually declined with the rise of department stores and online shopping, their model has reemerged in China. E-commerce giants like Alibaba are now bringing online shopping to rural areas in China, much like Montgomery Ward did for rural America. This is helping to modernize and invest in Chinese manufacturing, repeating the pattern of rural economic development spurred by mail order catalogues in the past. Though the catalogues themselves are gone, their economic and social impact continues today.

Bicycle

April 22, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast tells the fascinating story of the invention of the bicycle. It starts by describing an incident in 1865 when two men were startled by a "devil" flying down a hill towards them. This devil turned out to be a young French mechanic named Pierre Lalmont, who had invented a primitive form of bicycle he called a velocipede. Lalmont's velocipede lacked modern features like gears and brakes. It was soon superseded by the penny-farthing, with its huge front wheel. While fast, penny-farthings were dangerous and mainly ridden by daring young men. The next development was the much safer “safety bicycle,” which resembled modern bicycles with equal-sized wheels, a chain drive, and diamond frame. Safety bicycles were embraced by women, allowing them to ride unchaperoned - a liberating development. The conservative establishment fretted that immodest bicycling would lead to immorality, but these concerns were soon dismissed. The bicycle offered freedom and independence to women. It continues to empower girls and women today, increasing school attendance in places like India. The bicycle was also a breakthrough technology for manufacturing and industry. Early techniques developed for mass producing bicycles at low cost were later adopted by auto manufacturers like Henry Ford. Both the manufacturing methods and bicycle components like gears and pneumatic tires paved the way for automobiles. The progression from bicycles to cars was obvious. Today, global bicycle production actually exceeds car production. Bike-sharing schemes are booming worldwide. In gridlocked cities, bikes remain the fastest way to get around. With the rise of electric and self-driving cars, bicycles may enjoy another surge in popularity, reclaiming their status as an important personal transportation technology.

QWERTY

April 15, 2019
Episode Summary
The QWERTY keyboard layout has become the standard keyboard layout worldwide, even though it may not be the most efficient layout. QWERTY was originally designed in the 1860s by Christopher Latham Scholes for typewriters. It was adopted by Remington and became popular with typists being trained on this layout. Although alternative layouts like Dvorak were proposed as being more ergonomic and efficient, QWERTY maintained dominance due to network effects. Employers bought QWERTY typewriters because that is what typists were trained on, and typists learned QWERTY because that is what employers used. This illustrates the concept of lock-in, where an inferior standard can get locked in and be difficult to displace. The QWERTY example was popularized by economist Paul David as demonstrating the inefficiency of lock-in. However, some economists like Leibowitz and Margolis argue that QWERTY may not be clearly inferior. Although Dvorak is better for expert typists, for regular users the advantage is minor and does not justify the switching costs. Most people today continue to use QWERTY even when alternatives are easily available. Lock-in remains relevant today for technology standards set by dominant companies like Microsoft, Facebook and Apple. It is an open debate whether these constitute true lock-in that regulators should address, or whether consumers could switch if better alternatives emerged. The continued prevalence of QWERTY suggests lock-in may sometimes persist even without significant switching costs.

Bonus 4: Woodpecker and black box

April 15, 2019
Episode Summary
Woodpeckers are able to peck trees at an astonishing speed of up to 22 times per second without injuring themselves. This is due to several anatomical adaptations that allow them to withstand the high G-forces involved. Their beaks are extremely strong and do not bend or fracture. They have a springy, shock-absorbing hyoid bone that loops around the skull. Their skulls contain spongy bone material and tightly woven trabeculae that compress to absorb impact. Finally, their smooth, small brains fit tightly within the skull to avoid too much movement. Researchers studied woodpeckers to gain insight into protecting sensitive electronics from damage during high G-force impacts. At UC Berkeley, scientists mimicked aspects of the woodpecker's anatomy when designing a cylindrical metal enclosure for microelectronics. They added rubber to act as the hyoid bone and glass beads to mimic spongy bone. Their system protected the electronics from G-forces up to 60,000, far exceeding current flight data recorders. Ideas from woodpeckers may also assist in designing better protections for race car drivers. Beyond aviation and motorsports, woodpeckers inspired a cyclist to design safer bike helmets after suffering a concussion in an accident. Aniruddha Surabhi created a prototype helmet liner made of cardboard ribs in a honeycomb lattice structure. This flexes to absorb impact, with air pockets providing further shock absorption. In lab tests, his bio-inspired liner performed well while also being light and recyclable. In short, the woodpecker's effective shock absorption makes it a useful model for protecting electronics and humans in high speed crashes and collisions. Mimicking aspects of their anatomy has allowed the design of "black box" data recorders with greater impact resistance as well as safer helmets for racing drivers and cyclists.

Langstroth Hive

March 25, 2019
Episode Summary
The Langstroth Hive, invented by Lorenzo Langstroth in 1852, allowed for the industrialization of honey production and beekeeping. This patented beehive uses movable frames separated by just the right amount of space - 5/16ths of an inch. This gap allows the frames with honeycomb to be easily removed without disrupting the bees' own structures. The invention made honey harvesting efficient by using a centrifuge to spin out the honey. Prior to this, beekeepers used skep hives which required killing the bees to get the honey. The Langstroth Hive allowed bee colonies to be preserved and reused. This new, efficient beehive design enabled the portability and commercialization of bees. Today, billions of bees in Langstroth Hives are trucked around the United States pollinating crops. The economist James Meade used bees and apple orchards as an example of a "positive externality" - where beekeepers benefit from apple farmers but apple farmers don't benefit from beekeepers. However, this concept was based on a mistaken understanding of the commercial relationship between the two. In reality, apple farmers pay beekeepers to pollinate their orchards. The beekeeping industry is now huge, centered around the California almond industry which requires rented honeybee hives to pollinate the almond groves. While the Langstroth Hive enabled the industrialization and commercialization of bees, the decline in wild bee populations presents a dilemma. The economics of the commercial bee industry have allowed it to maintain hive populations so far. But perhaps the focus should be on helping populations of wild bees via measures like subsidizing wildflower meadows - a true example of a positive externality.

Bonus: 30 Animals That Made Us Smarter

March 25, 2019
Episode Summary
The podcast episode is titled "Kingfisher and Bullet Train" and is about how the kingfisher bird helped redesign the bullet trains in Japan. The episode is hosted by Patrick Ihe and is the first episode of a new BBC World Service podcast called "30 Animals That Made Us Smarter." The episode begins with Ihe reminiscing about watching a spider build a web when he was young and how it fueled his fascination with nature and biomimicry. Ihe explains that the podcast will share stories about how animals have provided inspiration for human innovations and designs. The first story focuses on how the kingfisher bird helped make bullet trains in Japan quieter and more aerodynamic. In the 1990s, engineer Eiji Nakatsu was tasked with making the bullet trains faster. However, when the trains entered tunnels at high speeds they created loud shockwaves. Nakatsu realized the train's shape was the issue and got inspiration from the kingfisher's beak which allows it to smoothly enter water when diving for fish. Nakatsu designed a new train nose modeled after the kingfisher beak which greatly reduced air resistance and noise. The kingfisher design solved the noise issue outside the train, but pantographs connecting the trains to overhead wires still caused whirling air and noise inside. Nakatsu again found a solution in nature, modeling the pantographs after owl wings and an Adelie penguin's spindle-shaped body. In 1997 the redesigned 500 series Shinkansen train set a new world speed record, thanks in large part to inspiration from kingfisher beaks. The episode concludes with Ihe noting how engineers looking to nature for solutions shows the wisdom in combining technology with studying the natural world. He previews future episodes covering how octopuses and squid have inspired camouflage designs.

Number 51

October 28, 2017
Episode Summary
The 51st and final episode of the podcast series "The Things That Made the Modern Economy" focused on the invention of the credit card. Credit cards allow people to make purchases and accumulate debt that can be paid back over time. This system is built on trust between the credit card company and the cardholder. In the past, shopkeepers would only extend credit to customers they knew personally. As cities grew, retailers began issuing tokens to trusted customers so clerks would know who to allow to take items without paying upfront. The first multi-store credit token was the Charge-It in 1947, followed by the Diner's Club card in 1949, allowing people to make purchases across a network of merchants. Early credit cards faced two challenges - getting both customers and retailers to adopt them, and making the payment approval process quick and easy. The "Fresno Drop" in 1958 helped solve the first problem by mailing unsolicited Bank of America credit cards to 60,000 people in Fresno, California. The second problem was solved by technologies like the magnetic strip, introduced in the 1960s, which allowed fast electronic approval of transactions. By the 1970s, credit card use was widespread. But some research suggests that credit cards may cause people to spend more freely, since swiping a card does not feel like handing over cash. Credit card debt has ballooned over the past 50 years. While credit cards offer convenience, their prevalence may have negative economic and psychological effects if used irresponsibly.

The Plough

October 21, 2017
Episode Summary
The podcast begins by posing the scenario of civilization ending and considering what technology would be most vital for restarting civilization. The host argues the plough would be the most important technology because it enabled the agricultural revolution that allowed civilization to develop in the first place. The plough transformed nomadic hunter-gatherer societies into settled farming communities approximately 12,000 years ago. As the climate grew hotter and drier, people migrated to river valleys where they had to farm to survive. Using simple ploughs pulled by cows allowed early farmers to be far more productive than foragers. This agricultural surplus freed up part of the population to specialize and develop things like baking, construction, and metalworking, building the foundations of civilization. However, plentiful food also led to inequality, with surpluses controlled by elites. Different plow designs had political implications too. Simple scratch plows used in the Middle East enabled individualistic farming, while heavier mouldboard plows needed community cooperation. Plowing also influenced gender roles, with men doing the heavy ploughing while women processed grains at home. The host notes there is debate around whether developing the plough was beneficial overall. While enabling civilization, the agricultural revolution also led to poor health, inequality, and the oppression of women. However, plough-enabled food surpluses allowed larger armies that could conquer remaining hunter-gatherers. In the end, the host concludes restarting civilization would require reinventing the plough, despite its drawbacks.

Welfare State

October 7, 2017
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the welfare state and how it developed over time. It starts by talking about Frances Perkins, who served as President Franklin D. Roosevelt's Secretary of Labor in the 1930s. Perkins helped drive reforms known as the New Deal, including minimum wage, unemployment benefits, and pensions for the elderly. Historians credit Otto von Bismarck, the 19th century German chancellor, for originally inventing the welfare state. But it was during Perkins' time that welfare states took their modern shape across the developed world. The core idea is that government, not family, charity or private insurers, has ultimate responsibility to ensure citizens don't starve or become destitute. However, welfare states have drawbacks. Overly generous benefits can create a 'welfare trap' where people are better off not working. But welfare states can also boost productivity by allowing workers time to find jobs suited to their skills and enabling entrepreneurs to take risks. Overall, research suggests the positive and negative economic effects balance out. In recent decades, welfare states have struggled with demographic, social, and globalization changes. People live longer, work patterns are less stable, multinationals can relocate more easily. This has increased economic inequality. Some economists worry that automation and AI could exacerbate this. In response, there is growing interest in radical reforms like universal basic income, an idea trialed in 1970s Canada. Although expensive, it could help societies adapt to technological unemployment. The history of welfare states shows big changes can happen quickly. In the 1920s, no US state had pensions; by 1935, Frances Perkins had implemented them nationwide.

Property Register

September 30, 2017
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the importance of property registers and how they help create modern economies. It begins by describing economist Hernando de Soto's experience in the rice fields of Bali, where he realized the dogs knew the property boundaries even though they were invisible to him. This led de Soto to argue that governments need formal registers of property rights, rather than just informal understandings. Formal property registers have huge benefits. They allow assets like land and buildings to be used as collateral for loans, transforming them into capital. Without registers, assets are just "dead capital" that can't be used financially. De Soto estimated developing countries had $10 trillion in dead capital in the early 2000s. Governments have created registers to unlock capital, like 19th century France and Britain. The US took a bottom-up approach, formalizing squatters' claims. Creating registers can enable investment, though it depends on having a good banking system and smooth bureaucracy. The Philippines' complex registration system makes assets informally traded again. But done right, registers reduce corruption and increase credit and investment. Registers are an unfashionable "invisible infrastructure" but vital for developed economies. De Soto called them the "mystery of capital" - the information system letting assets generate value. Overall, the podcast explains how formalizing property rights through registers has been essential for economic development worldwide.

Searching for 51

September 23, 2017
Episode Summary
Tim Harford introduced a special episode of 50 Things That Made the Modern Economy in which he presented a shortlist of six listener suggestions for a 51st thing to be explored in a bonus episode. Over 500 ideas were submitted after Harford asked listeners for one additional invention or innovation that shaped the modern economy. The first option was the credit card with its magnetic strip, pioneered in the 1960s by IBM and Dorothea Parry. The magnetic strip boosted the adoption of credit cards by making transactions easier compared to having merchants phone the bank. The second option was glass, with its long history tracing back thousands of years. Glass could be examined from various angles - as a material that enabled lenses, windows, and fiber optics, or through the stories of its discovery and manufacture. The third choice was GPS, originating from military applications during the Cold War and now powering new business models and technologies like self-driving vehicles. The fourth option focused on irrigation and water management, citing its importance in places from California to Bali. The fifth item on the shortlist was the pencil, highlighted in Leonard Read's essay about the complexity behind mundane objects. The final option was the spreadsheet, transforming finance and accountancy after Dan Bricklin's digital version in 1979. Harford then recapped the six options - credit card, glass, GPS, irrigation, pencil, and spreadsheet. He invited listeners to vote at a website before a deadline to choose which one would become the 51st episode.

S-Bend

September 2, 2017
Episode Summary
The S-bend was a revolutionary plumbing innovation that helped solve the sanitation crisis in London in the 19th century. At the time, London's population was growing rapidly, putting immense strain on the city's rudimentary sanitation systems. Sewage was dumped into street gutters that flowed directly into the River Thames, turning the river into an open sewer filled with human waste. This caused a horrific stench in the city and deadly cholera outbreaks that killed thousands. Civil engineer Joseph Bazalgette proposed a solution: to build a new closed sewer system that would carry waste away from the city. However, politicians dragged their feet on approving and funding the project. The crisis came to a head during the hot summer of 1858, when the stench from the river was so bad it became known as “The Great Stink.” The smell was impossible to ignore, even permeating the Houses of Parliament located right next to the river. This finally prompted politicians to rush through approval of Bazalgette's plan. The key to making closed sewer systems feasible was Alexander Cumming's invention in 1775 - the S-bend pipe. This simple curve in the pipe trapped water that blocked odors from the sewer from wafting back up. The S-bend made flushing toilets and modern sanitation possible. While the S-bend was introduced in the 18th century, it took many decades for flushing toilets to become widespread. They were still a novelty when featured at the 1851 Great Exhibition in London. The S-bend helped launch the sanitation revolution, but huge challenges remain today. Over 2.5 billion people still lack access to proper sanitation. Solving this requires overcoming the collective action problem, where individuals lack incentives to invest in public sanitation that benefits all. Bazalgette's sewer project exemplifies the large-scale planning and funding required. The S-bend proves that simple innovations can have an outsized impact on improving public health.

Radar

August 26, 2017
Episode Summary
The podcast begins by describing how the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 grounded flights across Europe, severely disrupting global supply chains and costing the economy billions of dollars. This demonstrated society's heavy reliance on air travel and aviation. The invention that enabled the growth of commercial aviation was radar. The story of radar begins in Britain in 1935. With war looming, officials wanted to develop a "death ray" to destroy enemy planes. However, physicist Robert Watson-Watt calculated that this was impractical. Instead, he proposed using radio waves to detect planes at long distances - an early version of radar. The British made breakthroughs like the resonant cavity magnetron to generate radar signals. They shared this technology with the US, which then mass produced it. Radiation Laboratory ("Rad Lab") at MIT was created to develop military radar, producing many innovations. After the war, radar slowly rolled out for civilian aviation. But coverage was patchy, with many airports lacking radar. Mid-air collisions sometimes occurred, like over the Grand Canyon in 1956, likely because pilots were distracted by clouds. This crash spurred efforts to expand radar usage. Today, radar enables heavy air traffic to operate safely. Technologies like radar have been crucial in allowing aviation to expand. As unmanned drones become more common, their collision avoidance systems will also rely on radar and related technologies.

Market Research

August 19, 2017
Episode Summary
The early 20th century was a golden age for American car manufacturers, who could barely keep up with demand for their products. But by 1914, the market was becoming more discerning, especially at higher price points. Charles Coolidge Parlin, now considered the world's first professional market researcher, was hired by a magazine publisher to study the auto market. After months of work interviewing hundreds of car dealers and traveling tens of thousands of miles, Parlin produced a report detailing consumer preferences. At the time, no car manufacturer actually employed market researchers or conducted consumer research. Henry Ford famously quipped that customers could have a Model T in any color they wanted, as long as it was black. The assembly line allowed Ford to streamline production around a single color. Parlin, on the other hand, had been hired by a magazine publisher looking to sell more advertising. The company realized that understanding markets could make advertising more effective. Though some were skeptical of Parlin's research, he helped pioneer a shift from a producer-led to a consumer-led approach to business. Rather than making a product and trying to sell it, companies began trying to identify consumer demand first. Parlin showed there was value in researching the market. By the late 1910s, companies were setting up their own market research departments. The field became more scientific over time, incorporating techniques like surveys, focus groups, and beta testing. Marketers also realized they could shape consumer preferences through advertising. Campaigns featured aspirational figures to influence behavior. Public relations techniques were used to manufacture desire for products. Market research has become integral to the modern economy, with companies probing the consumer psyche in ever more sophisticated ways. Whether this manipulation is beneficial remains an open question.

Seller Feedback

August 5, 2017
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the rise of online marketplaces and sharing platforms like Uber, Airbnb, and eBay. It explains how these platforms help match people who have coincidental wants and enable transactions between strangers who otherwise would not be able to find each other. A key innovation that enabled the growth of these platforms is seller feedback, which provides trust between buyers and sellers who don't know each other. When eBay introduced seller feedback in 1997, it helped reassure buyers that sellers would not just take their money without sending the purchased item. This built trust and allowed eBay's platform to grow. The podcast explains that online platforms create value by tapping into unused capacity like spare rooms or car seats. But they also create challenges around regulating the new sharing economy. Rules that protect workers, customers, and incumbents in the traditional economy may not apply. The podcast discusses how lawmakers around the world are trying to figure out how to appropriately regulate these platforms. It also notes that these platforms rely heavily on network effects, where growth builds on itself, which is why companies massively invest in subsidies and promotions to grow quickly. Some users are even defrauding the platforms to earn subsidies, like Uber drivers who create fake rides. Overall, the podcast explores both the benefits and challenges created by online marketplaces and the sharing economy. It highlights how these platforms innovated to enable transactions between strangers and are transforming sectors of the economy.

Leaded Petrol

July 8, 2017
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the history of leaded petrol and its impacts. It begins by describing how Thomas Midgley, the inventor of the tetraethyl lead additive, claimed it was safe despite evidence to the contrary. Midgley himself had suffered lead poisoning, as had workers producing tetraethyl lead, some of whom died. The additive was concerning to scientists when proposed by General Motors, but the company funded biased research claiming it was safe. At a government conference in 1925, Frank Howard of Ethyl Corporation argued leaded petrol was essential for civilization. But Dr. Alice Hamilton, an expert on lead, warned that lead poisoning was inevitable even with precautions. Societies often prioritize material gains over environment initially as they develop. But lead-free petrol was not necessarily a luxury. General Motors knew of alternatives like ethyl alcohol but pursued the patentable tetraethyl lead. The US took decades to start phasing out leaded petrol, doing so as part of clean air legislation and moving down the "environmental Kuznets curve." Later, rates of violent crime also fell. Economist Jessica Raze hypothesized this resulted from less lead exposure during childhood. By comparing states' timing of lead phase-outs, she concluded over half the crime drop was due to eliminating leaded petrol. The leaded petrol story illustrates issues like corporate influence on science, delayed regulation of dangerous products, and the difficulty of distinguishing visionaries from cranks. For decades, research on tetraethyl lead was funded by its producers. Inventor Thomas Midgley's creations like leaded petrol and CFCs proved environmentally hazardous. Gerald Markowitz and David Rosner aptly titled their book on industrial pollution Deceit and Denial.

Barbed Wire

June 24, 2017
Episode Summary
The podcast episode "Barbed Wire" from 50 Things That Made the Modern Economy tells the story of how barbed wire transformed the American West. Barbed wire was patented by Joseph Glidden in 1874 and allowed settlers to fence in and protect their land on the prairie. Before barbed wire, the open prairie was difficult to settle because it was essentially an unbounded space like an ocean. Smooth wire fences didn't hold back cattle from trampling crops. Barbed wire changed that by providing an effective way to demarcate property boundaries and fence animals out. The invention of barbed wire set off fierce disagreements about land rights. Settlers were staking claims to land that had been open territory used by Native Americans and cowboys. When homesteaders put up barbed wire fences, it led to violent "fence cutting wars." Masked gangs cut fences and left death threats. There were shootouts and deaths over the fencing disputes. On a philosophical level, barbed wire raised issues about land ownership and rights. It allowed settlers to enclose and claim parts of the prairie based on the idea that mixing one's labor with land confers ownership. This was opposed by those who believed no one should own common land. The barbed wire boom demonstrated the power of private property rights in transforming economies. Ultimately, while laws dictated land policy, barbed wire enabled settlers to enforce legal boundaries. The invention made Glidden and other "barbed wire barons" rich. In just 6 years, production exploded from 50 km of wire in 1874 to over 400,000 km in 1880. The story of barbed wire shows how a practical tool can shape economies and societies as much as laws and ideas.

Infant Formula

June 10, 2017
Episode Summary
The podcast begins by describing the loud cannon-like sounds heard by ships and soldiers in Indonesia in 1815. It turned out to be the eruption of Mount Tambora, one of the most powerful volcanic eruptions in history. The eruption killed thousands immediately and sent an ash cloud across the world that caused crop failures and famine in 1816. This traumatic event left a deep impression on 13-year-old Justus von Liebig in Germany, who later became a pioneering chemist driven to prevent hunger through scientific discoveries. One of von Liebig's most notable inventions was infant formula. Launched in 1865, it was the first commercial breast milk substitute based on rigorous scientific research. Before formula, many infants who could not be breastfed received inadequate nutrition from things like flour and water mixtures, resulting in high mortality rates. Formula provided an alternative, especially important for mothers who could not breastfeed. It quickly became popular beyond just these cases and allowed more women to return to work after having a child. However, formula is inferior to breast milk in nutrition and immunity benefits. Each year, over 800,000 deaths of infants could be prevented by breastfeeding instead of formula, mostly in poor countries. Controversially, formula is still heavily marketed by companies, despite an international code discouraging this practice. More recently, some companies have created a breast milk market, paying mothers to provide milk that is processed and sold. In summary, while infant formula enabled more workplace equality and options for mothers, its risks and aggressive marketing remain highly controversial, given the demonstrated benefits of breastfeeding for infants. The story of formula is intertwined with changing gender roles and the drive to apply science to solve societal problems.

Passports

May 22, 2017
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the history and evolution of passports. In the past, passports were not widely used or required for travel. They were more of a letter requesting protection for the traveler. In the 19th century, travel became easier with trains and steamboats, and passports became unpopular. Countries like France, the United States, and others abolished passport requirements or stopped enforcing them. It seemed passports might disappear altogether. This changed with World War I. With increased security concerns, governments imposed strict passport controls and kept these controls after the war ended. In 1920, the League of Nations held a conference that essentially created the modern passport system, standardizing the format and requirements. From then on, passports were an entrenched part of international travel. The podcast explores the economic logic of open migration, which suggests it would benefit the global economy. But there are practical and cultural challenges that prevent this. The losses from immigration tend to be more visible than the widely distributed gains. The podcast gives the example of Mexican migrants in the U.S. taking jobs from Americans. This illustrates why open borders are politically unpopular, despite economic benefits. The podcast ends by noting how passport nationality shapes opportunities for migration and work. It gives the tragic example of a Kurdish family that drowned trying to reach Greece because they lacked passports. Their story shows the power of passports to control movement and opportunities in the modern world.

Intellectual Property

May 13, 2017
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the concept of intellectual property and the balancing act required between protecting ideas and allowing them to spread. It begins by describing Charles Dickens' opposition to pirated copies of his work in America in the 1840s, where he had no copyright protection as a non-citizen. Dickens saw it as an outrage, but the truth about intellectual property protection has never been clear-cut. Patents and copyright grant a monopoly, which is bad for consumers but encourages new ideas by allowing creators to profit. There is a trade-off between being too generous to creators versus too stingy, which could stifle innovation. The balance has always been colored by politics, with America initially opposing copyright when it was developing, then later supporting it once its own authors and inventors gained prominence. The origins of intellectual property are traced to 15th century Venice, where patents aimed to encourage innovation by providing temporary legal protection that could be inherited or sold. Problems emerged during the British Industrial Revolution, as James Watt restricted improvements to the steam engine through aggressive patent litigation. Extending patents seems to have delayed advances rather than encouraged them. Since then, intellectual property protection has greatly expanded in scope and duration, with little economic justification beyond benefiting owners. Copyright terms are now over a century, and patents granted on vague concepts. There are arguments on both sides, but many economists feel intellectual property rules have become too broad and restrictive. The podcast argues that narrower protections could better balance incentives to create with the wider benefits of sharing ideas.

Video Games

May 6, 2017
Episode Summary
The podcast episode is about the first influential video game called Spacewar! developed in 1962. It was created by MIT students who were experimenting with a new computer called the PDP-1. The PDP-1 was revolutionary because it had a video display, allowing the students to make games. Spacewar! was a two player game where each player controlled a spaceship in a fight to the death. The players could spin, thrust, and fire photon torpedoes at each other with realistic physics. The students kept improving the game, adding features like a star with gravitational pull and special controllers made from wood and toggles. One student even programmed a realistic starscape background to make the game more immersive. The game was so captivating that one student, Peter Sampson, momentarily hallucinated he was playing it when looking up at the real night sky. This experience of dreaming about video games even when not playing them became common as gaming grew popular. Spacewar! pioneered video games as a social phenomenon and lucrative industry. Later games like Asteroids built on its gameplay and realism. Today's video game industry rivals films in revenue. Games are also shaping culture, with tie-ins like Minecraft Lego. Beyond profits, games impact the economy by creating real jobs. Some players earn money through selling virtual items. Whole studios in developing countries do repetitive tasks in games for Western players. While not lucrative for most, games provide enjoyable escapes. Hundreds of millions worldwide spend hours daily in virtual worlds, collaborating and building skills. For many, games now compete with real work for people's time and happiness.

Cuneiform

April 29, 2017
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the origins and development of cuneiform, one of the earliest forms of writing. Cuneiform was used over 5,000 years ago in ancient Mesopotamia, modern-day Iraq. In 1929, a German archaeologist named Julius Jordan discovered a large library of clay tablets written in cuneiform dating back 5,000 years in the ancient city of Uruk. At first, scholars could not decipher the abstract script. Uruk also had many small clay objects littering it that resembled everyday commodities like jars and loaves, but their purpose was unknown. In the 1970s, French archaeologist Denise Schmand-Besserat determined these tokens were used for correspondence counting to track goods and transactions. Schmand-Besserat realized the cuneiform writing matched the tokens and was used to record their use. Cuneiform was a representation of the tokens, which represented commodities, making it one of the first writing systems. The tablets were the earliest form of record keeping and accounting. This record keeping allowed the growth of urban economies and complex city societies. The clay tablets were used for contracts and recording debts and obligations. The combination of tokens and writing led to verification devices like hollow clay balls called bullas which held contracts. In summary, cuneiform writing originated not for art or literature, but as a practical accounting tool to manage transactions and the economy in ancient Mesopotamian cities. It enabled the growth of complex urban societies.

Elevator

April 15, 2017
Episode Summary
The podcast is about the elevator, which is an overlooked yet revolutionary invention. Elevators are a form of mass transportation that move hundreds of millions of people every day. While basic elevators have existed for centuries, it was Elisha Otis's safety elevator that truly transformed cities. At the 1853 World's Fair, Otis demonstrated his safety brake which prevented the elevator from plummeting if the cable broke. This gave people the confidence to use elevators to reach previously unthinkable heights. The elevator enabled the development of skyscrapers, allowing large numbers of people to work together in huge, compact buildings. It also changed the status of different floors - attics and garrets became penthouse apartments. Along with steel frames and concrete construction, elevators made skyscrapers possible. Subway systems then enabled people to access these dense urban centers. This combination has created green, highly desirable cities like New York, where over 80% of people use public transit. Elevators continue to evolve, with faster speeds and computerized systems for independent cars in one shaft. But simple ideas like mirrors in lobbies also improve the experience. Elevators are very safe and energy efficient, though underappreciated compared to other transit. Even the Empire State Building, already efficient due to its vertical density near a subway, has had regenerative brakes installed to supply power back to the building. So the next time you use an elevator, appreciate this overlooked innovation that has truly changed our cities and our lives.

Contraceptive Pill

April 8, 2017
Episode Summary
The contraceptive pill had a profound impact on society and the economy. Margaret Sanger, a birth control activist, urged scientists to develop the pill in order to liberate women sexually and socially. The pill provided women with reliable contraception that they could control themselves. It had a much lower failure rate than previous options like condoms or diaphragms. This gave women more control over their fertility and family planning. The pill was approved in the U.S. in 1960 and quickly gained popularity among married women. But the real revolution came when it became more available to unmarried women around 1970. This allowed young women to delay marriage and motherhood while investing in their education and careers. In the mid-1970s, the pill became the most popular contraceptive for college-aged women. Around this time, women began pursuing professional degrees like law, medicine, and MBAs in much higher numbers. In 1970, these fields had been over 90% male, but by the end of the decade women were rapidly entering them. The proportion of female students in these programs rose dramatically. The pill allowed women to delay motherhood and invest seriously in their careers during this critical time. According to research by Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz, the pill played a major role in these trends, beyond other factors like legalized abortion or decreasing sex discrimination. The timing of when the pill became available lines up with when each state saw surges in women enrolling in higher education and professional programs. This then translated into higher wages for women just a few years later. The economists showed that women who could delay motherhood by even one year saw a 10% increase in lifetime earnings. The pill essentially allowed the women of the 1970s to pursue careers before starting families. This research demonstrates the massive economic impact of contraceptive technology. Japan, which did not legalize the pill until 1999, continues to have much greater gender inequality compared to the U.S. The pill opened up educational and professional opportunities to American women that were previously unavailable.

Battery

March 18, 2017
Episode Summary
The podcast begins by describing how in the early 19th century, criminals sentenced to death by hanging would ask their friends to give their legs a hard tug as they dangled from the gallows. This was to ensure they were dead before their bodies were handed over to scientists for dissection. In 1803, an Italian scientist demonstrated "galvanism" on the corpse of an executed criminal named George Foster. He inserted electrodes into Foster's body, making his muscles twitch even though he was dead. Some spectators thought Foster was waking up. The scientist was Luigi Galvani's nephew, carrying on experiments started by Galvani decades earlier involving electricity and dead frog legs. Galvani was wrong that there was "animal electricity", but his friend Alessandro Volta realized the key factor was that the frog flesh conducted electricity between different metals. Volta invented the first battery in 1800 by stacking zinc, copper and brine-soaked cardboard. However, early batteries had flaws like corrosion and short life. The first rechargeable lead-acid battery came in 1859, while dry cell batteries emerged in 1886. The lithium-ion battery, patented in 1985 by Akira Yoshino, was the next major breakthrough. Lighter and more powerful, it enabled the development of mobile phones and laptops. But battery life has not kept pace with other advances in technology. The podcast concludes that a revolutionary new battery chemistry may still be on the horizon. However, the biggest impact may come from using batteries at scale to store renewable energy. Combining batteries with solar and wind power could reduce reliance on fossil fuel plants. Tesla aims to drive down lithium-ion costs dramatically with its new factory, for both electric cars and home energy storage. While grids based entirely on renewables and batteries remain far off, they are becoming more conceivable. Batteries could help galvanize action against climate change.

Public Key Cryptography

March 11, 2017
Episode Summary
Paragraph 1: In 1977, two Stanford graduate students were prevented by the US government from publicly presenting their research on public key cryptography at a conference. The government claimed it would be like exporting nuclear arms to hostile foreign powers. However, the research was not about biological weapons or conspiracies, just advances in encryption. Paragraph 2: The head of the government agency, Admiral Bobby Ray Inman, was puzzled why academics would work on cryptography, which he saw as only useful for spies and criminals. In the past, academics helped crack codes during wars. Now Stanford researchers were spreading knowledge that could help US adversaries secretly communicate. Paragraph 3: Throughout history, cryptography has been driven by conflict. The Stanford researchers wondered if encryption could be asymmetric - allowing someone to send an encrypted message to a stranger confident only they could decode it. This seemed impossible until breakthrough research papers in 1976 by Diffie, Hellman and RSA. Paragraph 4: They realized some mathematical operations are easy in one direction but hard in reverse. For example, it's easy to multiply two large prime numbers but very difficult to factor the resulting semi-prime number back into its primes. This is the basis of public key cryptography, which enabled the secure communication necessary for today's internet. Paragraph 5: The government spy chief Admiral Inman initially opposed the research but came to appreciate the value of public key cryptography for private sector transactions. However, strong encryption also helps criminals, creating a dilemma about government surveillance versus privacy. The NSA has sought to crack common encryption. Quantum computing could also one day break public key crypto. So the race continues between encryption and code breaking.

Robot

March 4, 2017
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the development of warehouse robots and how they are transforming the workplace. It starts by describing a robot made by Hitachi that can pick bottles off of shelves, showing how robot dexterity is improving. However, the podcast notes that humans and robots currently still work together in warehouses like Amazon's, where robots bring shelves to humans rather than fully replacing them. The podcast then provides some historical context, mentioning how industrial robots have been used since the 1960s but were always segregated from humans. Now new collaborative robots like Baxter can work safely alongside people. Robots are also starting to be used for more tasks beyond manufacturing, from lettuce picking to bartending. Still, we don't yet have robot maids doing household chores as predicted. Progress in robot capabilities is attributed to better hardware like sensors, as well as advances in artificial intelligence. Machine learning algorithms in particular are enabling robots to improve at narrow tasks. But human-like artificial general intelligence remains elusive. Even so, AI is transforming the economy by taking over white collar office work and even some skilled jobs like law and journalism. Some economists argue this automation explains why productivity growth is no longer creating jobs and raising wages like it historically did. While technology has always destroyed some jobs, the concern is that this time the jobs left for humans could be worse than ones replaced. The podcast ends by noting that if robot brains surpass human brains at thinking but not physical tasks, humans could end up being controlled by and subservient to robot masters.

Insurance

February 4, 2017
Episode Summary
Title: Insurance Paragraph 1: Insurance has ancient origins, with evidence of maritime insurance contracts in ancient Babylon over 4,000 years ago. Chinese merchants also spread risk by trading goods between ships. The Romans developed sophisticated marine insurance markets. Later, Italian city-states like Genoa and Venice continued this practice. Paragraph 2: In 1687, Edward Lloyd opened Lloyd's coffee house in London near the docks. It became a hub for ship auctions, sea captains, and maritime insurance, known as "underwriting." A group of underwriters formed the Society of Lloyd's, which is now the famous Lloyd's of London insurer. Paragraph 3: Another form of early insurance developed in the 16th century Alps, where farmers formed mutual aid societies to share risks like sick livestock. This concept of risk sharing grew into modern government social insurance programs. Paragraph 4: Governments also got into the insurance business by selling annuities to raise money for wars in 17th and 18th century Europe. Now government insurance is considered a core priority for managing risks like unemployment, illness, and aging. Paragraph 5: In poorer countries, governments and private insurers do little to help citizens manage major risks. But studies show insurance spurs economic growth, as seen in crop insurance expanding business for Lesotho farmers. Paragraph 6: The growth of financial derivatives has blurred lines between insurance and gambling. Derivatives allow betting on uncertain events without an insurable risk. Before the 2007 financial crisis, the derivatives market dwarfed the real economy. Side bets became the main event, with damaging consequences.

Antibiotics

January 20, 2017
Episode Summary
The widespread use of antibiotics when they're not really needed is a major issue in both agriculture and human medicine. Many doctors overprescribe antibiotics and regulations allow people to buy them over the counter. On farms, antibiotics are routinely injected into healthy animals as a preventative measure and also to fatten them up. But the bacteria don't care who is to blame for the overuse. They evolve resistance to the drugs, which could have disastrous consequences. Some estimates suggest drug resistant infections could kill 10 million people per year by 2050, more than currently die from cancer. The economic cost could be $100 trillion. The story of antibiotics started with serendipity. In 1928, Alexander Fleming didn't clean up his lab before a holiday. When he returned, he noticed mold had killed bacteria in a petri dish. But Fleming wasn't able to investigate further since he wasn't a chemist. A decade later, Ernst Chain, a chemist refugee from Nazi Germany, came across Fleming's old notes. Chain, along with Howard Florey and Norman Heatley, figured out how to mass produce penicillin, the first antibiotic. But Fleming warned that bacteria could be made resistant in the lab by exposing them to non-lethal doses. The problem hasn't been ignorance but incentives. Doctors and patients want to use antibiotics even when inappropriate to speed recovery. Farmers have an incentive to use low doses routinely to prevent disease and fatten animals, even though this breeds resistant bacteria. Tighter regulations are needed on agricultural and medical use. Denmark shows progress can be made. The country is famous for bacon but has strict controls on farm antibiotics. Improving conditions to reduce disease spread also appears to reduce the impact of routine antibiotic use. Ultimately the incentives need to change.

Billy Bookcase

January 14, 2017
Episode Summary
The podcast discusses the Billy bookcase, a simple and practical bookcase made by IKEA. The Billy bookcase was designed in 1978 by IKEA designer Gillis Lundgren. He sketched it on a napkin, worried he would forget the idea. Now there are over 60 million Billy bookcases in the world, making it an iconic IKEA product. The bookcases are mass-produced at the IKEA factory in Kjetlstorp, Sweden. The factory uses automated machines from Germany and Japan to produce the bookcases 24 hours a day. Particle board is delivered by the truckload, and the finished bookcases are stacked on pallets, ready for distribution. IKEA founder Ingvar Kamprad started the company in 1952. The idea of flat-pack furniture came a few years later from Lundgren, as they tried to fit furniture into a car for a photoshoot. Kamprad realized flat-packs cut costs in transport and labor. The Billy bookcase costs 30% less now due to tweaks in design and production. Economies of scale also lower costs, as the factory makes 37 times more bookcases with only double the employees compared to the 1980s. While simple and inexpensive, the Billy bookcase is a blank canvas that has been adapted for many creative uses. Its practical design makes it popular even with sophisticated customers. The bookcase exemplifies IKEA's model of relentlessly cutting costs without reducing quality. This innovation in logistics and efficiency, rather than technology, allowed IKEA and the Billy bookcase to become global successes.