SPEAKER_04: So I was not going to bring this up. Zach said bring it up. No,
SPEAKER_01: no, no, no, no, no, no, no, you're already creating mischaracterizations. You said you want to bring it up. I'm like, sure, I don't I'm not going to veto it. Go. I said,
SPEAKER_04: well, we have to bring up my COVID. Obviously, I'm the second best to get COVID. And I told you offline without the other two besties, I will just say I got it at a social function period. End of story. You said it's okay to talk about. Yeah,
SPEAKER_01: it's not like I wanted to bring it up. You want to bring it up. And I'm allowing it because I I'm fine with it. So go for it. We all got something at Sax's event. You got COVID. I got
SPEAKER_05: chlamydia.
SPEAKER_04: Oh, you guys went to the downstairs rooms.
SPEAKER_05: God damn it.
SPEAKER_04: Chumath again, you promised. It was a great party. All right. Let's let's hear Jason's accusations. I've been
SPEAKER_01: hearing about it all week. It was a great party. No, you've been saying you know, you're super spreader. COVID Jason, you
SPEAKER_05: are angry. You're angry. And you were Yeah, you were really mad at Sax because you thought he actually gave you COVID even though Sax had people test every single person tested on the way in except you J Cal J Cal you walked around the velvet room.
SPEAKER_02: I have and you guess what? I'm a bestie. I don't have to tell you walk right in the party. At the end of the day, there's nothing
SPEAKER_05: person that flooded the rules got it. Karma's a bitch J Cal
SPEAKER_02: nothing better personifies poetic justice as what I do not
SPEAKER_04: place blame on anybody for all year round. You ran at sax you
SPEAKER_02: make fun of him you poke him you look at this Republican super spreader was a GOP super spreader go to his party and you run around the velvet rope and you don't get your test and you go in and you walk out with why should I have to test it was
SPEAKER_05: really amazing. I don't wait a line so I'm a bestie. I think he
SPEAKER_01: walked out with COVID because I think he walked in with COVID there you go. He's the only one not to test so who brought it in to test my daughter and I came to your wonderful party. It was
SPEAKER_04: amazing. It was delightful. And we tested and no you didn't when
SPEAKER_01: you got tested. You did it. You were either lying then or you're lying then or you're lying now which one is joking then I
SPEAKER_04: hundred percent with my daughter. Okay, you're telling the truth was on the line testing with me. I had the bracelet I tested 100% when I asked you when you got into the
SPEAKER_01: party and I said how'd your COVID test go? You said oh, I pulled my bestie card. I walked around I pulled my bestie. That's not true. That's true. That's what you said that you
SPEAKER_04: guys are probably making up bullshit now. No, you said that. Okay, I may I may have made a joke. But I and then I find out the reason why Jade wasn't at the party.
SPEAKER_01: She was home taking care of two sick kids. No, she wasn't. We have she was one kid. So how do we know? Wasn't you? Okay, we
SPEAKER_04: know. Fredo. To the party. Alright, here's what happened. I went to the party. I did test.
SPEAKER_04: There was a group of people that got there early had tested at another event. They told me this. They tested before they got there. And they told me that they had accidentally brought it with them because they were the first to have a positive test result. So in all likelihood, it was that group does know it doesn't matter who brought it because omni kron omni kron is going everywhere. What is it? I'm gonna cry. It's a character
SPEAKER_02: from transponders. What do you mean they brought it with them if they
SPEAKER_01: tested negative from another location? They tested they
SPEAKER_04: claim they tested then they were the first to come up that next day with a positive result. 24 hours to incubate. You're right.
SPEAKER_04: So that means they must have brought it with them. They tested on Sunday and had it. They were negative at the door. They did
SPEAKER_04: not test at the door. They told me they tested the day before or two days before the door including vendors. There are
SPEAKER_01: people who are turned around because it's a positive who didn't test. Oh, you're trying to blame it on? No, I
SPEAKER_04: specifically have tried to not say the person's name and you're trying to include them in this. It doesn't matter. They were all
SPEAKER_01: negative at the time of the party. You hosted a super spreader. They didn't get it to like five days later. So they were not the earliest to test you tested positive. You had symptoms before they did. Remember the tickle in the throat guys? Remember when he said last week he had the tickle in the throat? Anyway, thank you for giving me I'm a cron. I am
SPEAKER_04: now fucking super. According to all results. I am now Superman. Have you tested negative now? Not yet. I did a test yesterday.
SPEAKER_04: Nine days later. I'm still coming up positive. I had two days of symptoms. Not that any of you give a shit you rat bastards. You just laugh about my COVID nobody had no point in this conversation. Did any of you say how are you feeling? Was there any chance of death? Was there any chance I was triple
SPEAKER_04: vax I had done Moderna at any point though, did you feel like
SPEAKER_05: Oh shit, I may have to go to the hospital. I may need to know that's too bad. I felt the tickle in my throat on Tuesday.
SPEAKER_04: You want to know the symptoms. He coughed three times he sees
SPEAKER_01: twice and prematurely ejaculated once those were his symptoms.
SPEAKER_04: This is going to be our prediction show last week we did of course our 2021 bestie awards. How did everybody feel about last week's awards? I think it was great. I listened to quite well. Yeah, I was happy. It was a fun show. I
SPEAKER_02: think we we all got to kind of talk about stuff we wanted to talk about and and it was pretty dynamic. I thought it was good show. I like it was like a greatest hits. So we're going to
SPEAKER_04: do some predictions for next year. Are you going to do a drum
SPEAKER_02: roll and a little scene as well? Yes. Okay, here we go. Here's an opening but it's got to be like flying into the future like going through space. Yeah. War speed warp speed wormhole.
SPEAKER_04: Yeah, other side of the universe. Here we are in 2022. Biggest political winner 2022. What did Tucker Carlson's former writers tell you to say sex? I
SPEAKER_04: never had sex. People were intrigued about what was the second battle about? That was the big debate. Oh, who knows? I can't remember. About
SPEAKER_05: the beep beep, which led to me writing the Google Doc about beep beep. I know what it was. I tomorrow and I deserve a bestie
SPEAKER_02: award for that. Who's your biggest political winner? Okay,
SPEAKER_04: well, let's stop at the inside baseball, my biggest political
SPEAKER_01: winner for 2022. I predict my man Ron DeSantis will be the big winner. He's up for reelection in Florida. He won in 2018. With less than 1% of the vote. It was a real nail biter this time, I think he's going to cruise to reelection quite handily and become the national front runner on the GOP side. And the reason is because he had the right approach on COVID. He made the vaccine available, he made the antibodies available. But ultimately, he treated the population like adults. He let them make their own decisions. He kept businesses open schools open. And I think the rest of the country is going to come around to his point of view, because the unstoppability of Omicron next year. And so I think that DeSantis who is much maligned and disparaged will come out as the big winner a year from now. Who do you got free bird Vladimir Putin. I think
SPEAKER_02: Putin is going to benefit from the rising conflict between the US and China. The other day, there was a call between Putin and G and they said, and Putin called G his dear friend, and said that relations between the two countries had reached an unprecedentedly high level. And I think that his position economically as a trade partner with China, and as a beneficiary of Chinese economic prosperity will only grow as tensions between the US and China rise. I think we're seeing that with some of his cavalier behavior with the Ukraine right now. And I think Putin will become a stronger player on the global stage, particularly as it relates to his relationship with NATO over the next year. And he's been a little bit quiet the last few years, he was kind of, I'd say suppressed with sanctions and all the other nonsense that's gone on to keep him at bay, but he could kind of rise up again in 2022. And he could become a real player on the geopolitical stage globally, in a more meaningful way than he has in the last couple years. I
SPEAKER_05: mean, you you white guys love Putin. It's crazy. whites love to love him. God, I hate Putin. I mean, if you ranked if you ranked Russia GDP, do you know even do you have any idea where it even ranks? Probably you guys for the amount of time you guys give? Probably eight. I mean, no, no, it's like crushes Russia. Nobody ever talks about Nigeria has all the same inputs except they're black. They just don't have 2000 nuclear weapons.
SPEAKER_04: I mean, as a reason, I mean, it's a fallen empire for sure. But they still have 2000 nukes. Though they position the energy
SPEAKER_02: that it provides. Europe. I mean, Russia's geopolitically pretty significant. insignificant economically
SPEAKER_04: significant because they have a madman running the country. I
SPEAKER_05: don't think he's a madman. But I'm just saying that, you know, there's a there's a lot of ink that spilled about Russia. And I don't think anybody even takes a step back and actually looks at who you got for yours. It's not food in the world, guys. I my my worldwide biggest political winner for 2022 is using pink.
SPEAKER_05: I think this guy is he's firing on all cylinders. And he is basically ascendant. So 2022 marks the first year where he's essentially really ruler for life. And so I don't think we really know what he's capable of and what he's going to do. And so that's just going to play out. You think he's the biggest political winner? Really? Oh, my
SPEAKER_04: God, I think it's going to be a he's going to run roughshod, not
SPEAKER_05: just domestically, but also internationally, because you have to remember, he controls so much of the critical supply chain that the Western world needs to be I think he's completely right. I think you're completely right. I think he's
SPEAKER_04: losing his power. He's scared. That's why he took out all these CEOs. He's consolidating power because he fears that they're going to win too big and then displace him. And he has massive real estate problems over there that could blow up at any moment in time, he could face a civil war there. I think he's totally isolated himself. Civil War, they don't even have a major country is removing their factories and removing this dependency there. What are you talking about? What is that?
SPEAKER_05: What are they gonna riot with? Did you not see Tiananmen
SPEAKER_04: Square? Did you not see the riots in Hong Kong? Are you not paying attention to mouth that there's been many riots in China? They happen to kill those were crushed. And that's before he had full control. He still will have massive amounts of I believe protests and yeah, he'll have to kill people. I think I think the bigger risk is is that China gets better for
SPEAKER_01: Xi Jinping, but worse for everybody else in China. It's already worse for all the billionaires over there. It's worse for the tech industry. You've now got Evergrande that whole, you know, gigantic debt implosion. I think there could be contagion from China next year. I don't think she's gonna lose his grip in any way. But I'm not sure China's gonna have a good year next year. Gonna be terrible. I went with Ron DeSantis with you sacks. I
SPEAKER_04: think he's obviously a much more he's a much more palatable candidate than Trump. And I think Trump is not going to want to run. And that brings me to my biggest political loser for 2022. As we segue, I believe this is going to be split between Biden and Trump, the two most important people of the last four years, and I think Biden is going to lose the midterms and I think Trump is going to get destroyed with this January six thing and bow out and not run again. Who do you got for your biggest loser? Let me add an octogenarian to that, which is my biggest
SPEAKER_01: political loser next year is Nancy Pelosi. I there's a red wave coming. The Democrats for sure are gonna lose the house that is baked into the cake. And I predict she will announce her retirement shortly after that. She has served, you know, a couple of pretty consequential terms as speaker, she's never lost a vote. But with this whole build back better, she forced all her moderates to take a vote on 5 trillion in new spending, which they then lost in the Senate. And that's going to cost them some seats. And that's going to be a big deal. And I think she's going to be able to get some seats. So she contributed to I think her own downfall, what's gonna happen
SPEAKER_04: next year, is Nancy to come work at social capital, and you're gonna give her a bucket of capital tomorrow to work with to try to play the
SPEAKER_01: market. By the way, Jason, who's the excellent writer you got from Tucker because I want to hire them.
SPEAKER_04: Listen, I got somebody from the YouTube comments who said they would they would punch me up. All right, I got Biden and Trump, Nancy Pelosi. And then who do you got freeburg? Who's the president of the United States? I think it's going to
SPEAKER_02: be a 2022 prediction. Mine's a little depressing, but I'm honestly a little bit worried about the United States influence on kind of a global stage socially, politically, economically. And I think that there's a number of events that could catalyze kind of a particular precipitous series of events that could really harm politically. So you know, I don't really have an individual but I kind of have the US and its and its role on the global geopolitical stage, us influence us influence. Yeah. And you said you thought there
SPEAKER_04: was going to be this potential tipping point, perhaps you see that being Taiwan or what?
SPEAKER_02: I've got a couple of them. I think when we get into our contrarian points of view, I'll share some of them.
SPEAKER_04: Okay. Chammoth, who do you got for your biggest political loser for 2022 prediction?
SPEAKER_05: Well, look, I, I like your pick of Trump, which is not mine, but just to double down on this Trump thing. It's incredible to see that he's just a bamboozler. You know, that's the same guy who's like, you know, telling people to not take the vaccine gets boosted. Then you know, when he finally gets outed with this other scumbag. What's that guy's name? What's another right knob sacks? Take out your phone and go to speed dial.
SPEAKER_04: Just read it.
SPEAKER_05: Right. Bill O'Reilly. Yeah, that's before the speed dials to dopes on stage are like, Yeah, I got boosted. What about you? Yeah, I got triple faxed in. And then everybody's booing them. I mean, they're just such watch what they do, not what they say.
SPEAKER_04: Because you're entertaining shit on the wall. The great thing is they are phenomenal entertainers. But you
SPEAKER_05: can't trust a single word that they say. So, Jason, I think that that's a pretty good pick. My pick is the progressive left as a class. Because I think these guys are being exposed, basically for just being laughing stocks, they're be quickly becoming policy jokes inside of Washington. And in every city state that they run, they just can't seem to put one foot in front of the other. And they've been run amok with folks like these teachers unions who have really, really, really done a number on our children, which is now finally getting exposed in the mainstream media. And so all of these policies are just, they're not rooted in any sort of science or legitimacy. So they are, I think, going to pay a pretty heavy political price for mainstream voters in 22. You know what they remind me of those two guys like the old guys
SPEAKER_04: from the Muppets, Statler and Waldorf. That's what like those Trump and O'Reilly are okay. Biggest. I think Biden can still save save a lot of his long term
SPEAKER_05: reputation. I think Trump's is what would Biden need to do in 2022 number one center, he
SPEAKER_04: needs to disavow the progressives and basically shore
SPEAKER_05: up his party's ability to win back some seats and hold the line. And so we're not gonna be able to enter some of these places with some of this rhetoric that, you know, he basically was convinced would be necessary for him to not lose the progressive left. There just needs to be a conversation inside the White House where they actually go through the cold political calculus of, you know, my enemies, enemies, actually my friend kind of thing and actually go back to the center. Yeah, he needs to pull a Bill Clinton and try and pull
SPEAKER_01: Brooklyn. Okay, and quickly to
SPEAKER_01: I think it's way too early to conclude that the Biden presidency is over. I mean, I think I think they're gonna lose Congress next year. That's baked into the cake, but he's still got two years after that to pull his chest outside of the fire. And if the Republicans overplay their hand, and he taxed towards the center, you know, he can change his fortunes. He can change his fortunes quickly. He's down a pawn, but
SPEAKER_04: he could develop the board. I got it. All right.
SPEAKER_02: I think the voice of populism is only going to swell over the next year. And that's going to be the predominant force that's going to drive both the alt right and the progressive left. And it you know, you could make the case that, you know, politicians that are in seats should be kind of disavowing these what we today are calling kind of extreme voices, but they're only getting louder. And the importance of kind of populist movements, not just in the US, but you look around the world. I mean, look at what's happening in Brazil, various European countries. I mean, it is you think populism is going
SPEAKER_04: to have a rebound in 2022? We're all saying that we think it's fizzling. Well, I can I just say free bird, just in populism
SPEAKER_02: swelling, and I think it's gonna get louder and okay, low interest, low interest rates are simply keeping things at bay for now. And I think that's going to shift very quickly. And but free bird populism just means what's popular. And so I
SPEAKER_05: think there's a huge silent majority that's always stayed on the sidelines, because they're not the ones that that are tend to tend to have a tendency to complain. But when things get important enough, they typically show up. And so, you know, we may find that actually centrism is what's most popular. I think
SPEAKER_02: populism is anti elitism. And I think that there is a growing concern globally because of globalization, that power and capital has been concentrated in the hands of a few that the voice of the majority is we want to be sure we want that to all be shared equally. And that's what's driving populism around the world. And it's in the US, you know, manifesting in different ways on the left and the right. And you'll see this in other countries around the world. But I don't see the fundamental driving forces changing there until and unless we have massive taxation and redistribute wealth in a meaningful way, or some massive shift in government, that that voice is going to get any quieter, I think it's only gonna get louder. And there may be perturbations between here and there of like what it looks like, but it doesn't seem to be going away. That's, that's just to me kind of the underlying driving force. And it's manifesting with different political stuff right now. But interesting. It's not it doesn't seem to be silencing biggest business winner for
SPEAKER_04: 2022. Chamath, let's start with you. Small businesses. I think
SPEAKER_05: what we are starting to see is that these monolithic monopolistic mega corps aren't everything that they're cracked up to be. And so there's going to be a certain amount of lock in that we will tolerate. There's going to be a lot of taxation and policy that prevents its further growth. And all of that opportunity accrues to smaller companies. And so in general, I think that if you are on the side of the David versus these Goliaths over the next year, you're going to have or what, frankly, over the next several decades, but starting really next year, you're going to do really well. And the middle companies, so the folks that are neither huge nor are small, let's take a, you know, an example like a Shopify 100 billion dollar market cap, but it's by no means is it a trillion dollar market cap. Their success comes from enabling, you know, arming the rebels. And so I'm a huge fan of these enabling this enabling layer for small businesses, both offline and online. Who do you got freeburg? I am actually going to go with
SPEAKER_02: stripe. stripe is a payment technology company based in San Francisco. stripe raised money earlier this year to $95 billion valuation. The highest valued IPO tech IPO in history was Alibaba, they were valued at $230 billion when they went public. We are hearing rumors that stripe might, you know, kind of, or think that they bankers think that they might be able to break that. And so stripes IPO could be the biggest tech IPO ever. I think they've been talking about doing a direct listing. By the way, I don't know the guys, I don't know the investors, I don't know the company, I'm not an investor. So I don't have any information whatsoever. I'm simply an observer and talk to people in the market. But it sounds like they're going for direct listing. And we could see that become the highest valuation tech IPO ever. And then they will become kind of the golden child next year. And you know, kind of be part of the, you know, the top of the top. What do you got? Sax? I got rise of the rest, meaning the parts of the United States
SPEAKER_01: that are not the traditional California and New York centers of industry and wealth. I think it's a trend that's been going on, but it's going to keep getting bigger next year. If you guys saw the net migration numbers by state, they're absolutely stunning. Stunning. So and it's the it's the zero tax states that are just booming right now. It's states like Florida and Texas and Tennessee and on and on it goes at the huge expense of California and New York. I think that trends only going to pick up steam now that salt is dead. I think there was a hope on the part of many people that Trump got rid of salt, but and then the Democrats were supposed to bring it back and then AOC rejected it. It's not coming back. And what that means is that if you're in say, California, for example, you know, with the salt deduction, your effective tax rate was around 8%, not 13.3%. Now it really is 13.3%. That's a huge increase. And the politicians in California don't even realize that the tax rate has effectively gone up to the end taxpayer. And, and the quality of life isn't any better. We're not getting anything more for that. And so I think this x is going to say, that's the subtle math that they actually really need to
SPEAKER_05: understand that 500 basis points, you can overcome that if your life is 5% better in enough ways where you're like, it's fine. And the reason why people are leaving is they feel that their life is actually much less than 5% worse, right? If the quality of life doesn't justify it, you know, your your windows are getting smashed in all the time safety kids are, you know, depressed and need counseling because of the way that the teachers unions locked them out of school. You're just like, forget this. I can't do this anymore. Right? I had those two
SPEAKER_04: numbers. Yeah, here. That's what that's what people really need
SPEAKER_05: to appreciate. I don't think it's the actual effective tax rate. But it's the delta of how poor your quality of life has gotten over these last few years relative to the tax you pay. Yeah, I totally agree with that. And then one other effect
SPEAKER_01: that I think plays into this is the reshoring of American industry, which is not happening in places like California, New York, it's happening in places like Texas, sure. Samsung just announced a $17 billion investment in a new chip foundry in Texas. Here, I'll post this and there's a lot of things like this happening. So as we decouple from China, and bring our supply chain home, let's go that is going to be a big factor in the rise of the rest of it. Love it. And it's great. It's great for America because the wealth does need to be more evenly distributed. It can't just go to tech and finance elites in California, New York. Yeah. All right. I had to Disney
SPEAKER_04: was my biggest corporate winner for 2022 Disney Plus crushing it. Parks raised prices people want to go to the park Spider Man just had I think the number two or number three all time opening in a pandemic, which is crazy that IP is going to continue to work for them. Jon Favreau and David feel lieni, I think is how you pronounce his last name, both crushing it with Mandalorian Boba Fett, one of the great characters from our childhood now is going to have his own book of Boba Fett starting on December 29. Is that today or tomorrow? Tomorrow. And so I think Disney is going to have a huge surge. I think they're undervalued. But my number one for this category of biggest business winner for 2022 was millennials in Gen Z. I think that they became completely empowered and independent. They shook off the participation trophies and their entitlement during COVID. They realized that they have skills that are valuable. They're sought after they learned how to make money. They traded crypto, they did stock trading, they're doing shorts, puts whatever on Robin Hood, and they're just not impressed with people in power. And they increasingly want to build shit and make money. I think that those two generations have woken up. And I think they're going to be the biggest winners in 2022. Because dovetailing with your SMBs, Chamath, I do think, and I'm seeing it across my entire portfolio of companies. You try to hire somebody and they're like, Yeah, but maybe I can start my own company and sacks
SPEAKER_05: are actually saying a flavor of the same thing, actually. Yeah. Because all these SMBs aren't going to happen in New York and San Francisco. They're happening all over America. And there are people that are taking empowerment into their own hands. There's tooling for them. And there's opportunity, economic opportunity for them to build businesses on their own. And basically just say, you know, if you build your confidence with you, sacks, nothing builds your confidence,
SPEAKER_04: like moving from one city to another. And having that's a very empowering thing to do when you're just like, you know what, I'm gonna just leave and go somewhere else. I'll make it myself. So I feel like they are super impressive to me. I really believe in I really believe in this because the three of us
SPEAKER_05: got there in totally different ways. But I think it's roughly all the same. We might be triangulating around a trend
SPEAKER_04: here. Biggest business loser for 2022. I'll just give it real quick. I think crypto projects that actually don't deliver a product in 2022 are just going to be lost. I think this idea that people are going to bet on things that don't exist in the real world or don't actually have applications is going to end it's time for crypto to put up or shut up. And I think the crypto projects that do that, which a number of them are starting to are going to store but it's going to be a big shake out there. What do you got for biggest business loser in 2022? freeburg? I agree with you, actually. That was my Yeah, oh,
SPEAKER_02: wow. I said crypto bubble will burst. There's a lot of scammy nonsense going on. 90% of these projects, okay, you know, are not going to yield value and fundamentals. And I also think that rising interest rates are going to affect the crypto market. There's a lot of leverage trades into the crypto assets. Those will start to deliver as these interest rates shift up. And as a whole, you'll see a large percentage of them go away or decline in value, but a small number will continue to grow in value. Just like we saw when the.com bubble blew up. There was a number of companies that survived. Most of them did not. And the few that did survive ended up becoming worth 10 times what the current market value is. And I think that that's still possible with these crypto projects. But I'd say 90% of them are probably going to start to blow up next year. What do you got your mouth? Well, I guess I'm fading you guys. And I'm also
SPEAKER_05: fading implicitly freeburg's pick of stripe. But my biggest business loser for 2022 is Visa and MasterCard and traditional payment rails and the entire ecosystem around it. So I think that this is the year you can put on what probably will be the most profitable spread trade of my lifetime, which is to be short these companies, and that anybody that basically lives off of this two or 3% tax, and be long, well thought out web three crypto projects that are rebuilding payments infrastructure in a completely decentralized way. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean that what you say won't also happen, both that stripe will have an incredible IPO and that a lot of these scammy crypto projects will go to zero. However, if you read the white papers of these crypto projects, and you systematically put together a framework, I think you can be long those and you can be short Visa MasterCard because I think this is their peak market cap. And for those of you don't know,
SPEAKER_04: fading and sports betting taking the opposite side of a bet, taking the opposite team, I guess man visas market cap is
SPEAKER_02: half a trillion dollars, huh? It's incredible. It's a
SPEAKER_05: completely contrived duopoly that doesn't mean to a young
SPEAKER_02: person and MasterCard is almost 400 billion. So they're trillion dollar combined market. You have to understand that the
SPEAKER_05: canary in the coal mine here is pretty significant. The most important thing is Amazon. Earlier this year, Nick, maybe you can post this decided to just shut visa off in the UK. Oh, yeah, now Amazon is not going to do something like that, in my opinion, unless it's a test of what they can do all around the world. And again, going back to this idea of arming the rebels, there really is no need today for all of these small businesses to sit on top of Visa, MasterCard and Amex rails, it's unnecessary. And so it'll probably get developed in the developing world first. This is why I think, you know, focusing in markets like Nigeria, to me are way more exciting than talking about, you know, these fading Western European countries, who cares, right? This is where this stuff will happen. It's not to say that those are those other companies can't, you know, trundle along for a while. But when I say, you know, we'll look back in 10 years, and their market caps will be materially lower. Anybody in those traditional infrastructure and rails versus anybody in this new infrastructure and rails will be it will look like a no brainer to you consider the buy now pay later companies like a firm and
SPEAKER_02: upstart or whatever. I don't know if upstart fits in that category. But some of these buy now pay later businesses as being the alternative to the traditional payment networks, or do you think it's a different business? No, I right now I
SPEAKER_05: think what what buy now pay later is, is a rate arbitrage, right? When as you said earlier, rates are very, very low. So the cost of capital is low. But it again, starts to habituate the consumer experience to I don't need to pay these users rates to these three credit card companies to facilitate a transaction of money that I already have or money that I'm good for. That's the big idea, right? And so when you translate that into web three in a good project or a good series of projects, you're not going to need these companies. And so it's going to I think, eviscerate trillions of dollars apart. Not to mention, you also have in between these two venmo
SPEAKER_04: and cash app, which are not crypto, but they certainly as brands mean more to young people like giving and MasterCard. Yeah, giving block used to be called square is a good pair
SPEAKER_02: trade against Visa MasterCard in this context. Yeah, I like it.
SPEAKER_05: You know, I think that that that starts to get closer to to the truth. My perspective is, you can kind of short anybody who's public, because anybody who's public can really only be public or will go public, because they feast off of this artificial two or 3% transaction fee, everybody does. The companies you want to be long are those private companies in crypto that you can read the white papers of whose protocols have utility, and who's building some element of infrastructure that replaces a traditional business. So as long as you can kind of build those things up, Balaji, for example, had a bunch of tweets this weekend where he was like, you know, he has this idea for a mirror table, what is that that replaces, you know, cap table management, right? Now, why is that important? Well, it because it touches all of these really important KYC, AML investing laws across all these countries in all of these places. It's just a very simple example of where the new company that actually builds that capability of these mirror tables will do so at virtually no cost. And so it'll have a 50 person team. And so they're not going to have offices all over the world. Their cost basis will be, you know, an order or two orders of magnitude. Visa MasterCard became a tax. It took them
SPEAKER_04: decades and decades to have that power over folks. And what I think a firm does break that a firm breaks it because the people who are selling then decide you know what, we'll give a little bit of a discount here to get more people to buy. Go ahead. They were the classic network monopoly network effect
SPEAKER_02: monopoly business, right? Like they got the small businesses, they got the credit cards, and by extension, the consumers on the network. And ultimately, they created these these absolutely locked in networks. But as with all networks, complacency kind of, you know, drives innovation. And this fueled innovation that we're seeing is now starting to figure out ways to not just crack their way into the network, but to replace them with an entirely different model. Last point on
SPEAKER_05: this, this is not one where I think this disruption happens slow. I think it happens swiftly, swiftly being five to
SPEAKER_04: 10 years. No, like in a year. Yeah, to my point is really
SPEAKER_02: interesting, because there's, you know, there are several billion people globally who do not have credit and who are unbanked. And so if you think about where this is more likely to come from, it's more likely to come from an innovative model in those markets that then ultimately finds its way into the developed world, versus, you know, trying to break apart Visa and MasterCard and go get these small businesses to switch out of them and so on today. So it's a really interesting... Okay. Sax, what do you got? I don't know if it's the biggest loser.
SPEAKER_01: But the thing I'm most worried about is in 2022, the Fed is going to stop quantitative easing or so they have said they are... I guess March will be the last month in which they do this QE. So starting in April, there won't be any of this liquidity pumped into the system. And so I think the losers are going to be any of these asset classes that are heavily dependent on or have benefited from all this excess liquidity sloshing through the system. It's true that the stock market, I think, has already priced in rate increases and an increase in the discount rate. But I don't know if markets can fully price in a reduction in liquidity. We don't know exactly what that's going to look like. And so if liquidity is reduced next year, I think that could reverberate through a bunch of markets, including, you know, everything from sports cards, you know, collectibles, which have gone through the roof, to art, to crypto to, you know, maybe some growth stocks and on and on it goes. So that's my biggest worry is what happens when the Fed stops QE. The biggest loser is markets because of quantitative easing.
SPEAKER_01: The markets that have to get off drugs, basically.
SPEAKER_04: Okay, most contrarian belief. Sax, why don't you tell us your most contrarian belief since I'm sure that you workshop this with the contrarian Peter Taylor himself. It never ends.
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, so I have a couple of them here. Actually, you want to wait and go after everybody else? Sure. Yeah, go
SPEAKER_04: ahead. I don't even know if this is contrarian or just
SPEAKER_05: unconventional. But I think that all of this pressure in on the progressive left will manifest in the chosen one AOC deciding to step up and run against Schumer in the primary in June of 2022. And she will lose. Wow, that's a good prediction. I
SPEAKER_01: like to watch prediction. That's a bold one. Yeah, that she
SPEAKER_04: would lose his ball was sorry, just to give a little bit of
SPEAKER_05: color in this, like, let's just assume that she doesn't. Right. And you know, she shouldn't but let's think about where she's sitting. Build Back Better is over. There's an enormous amount of stuff happening right now where, you know, it looks like the progressive left is really going to be put under pressure. And it's almost as if she's really going to be the standard bearer. And she needs to do something quickly. Otherwise, she's going to have to wait until she's 38. You know, she's, you know, another six years from now, because it's not unlikely that she's going to run against Kristen, you know, Kirsten Gillibrand. So this is kind of like it may be a moment where out of her sheer frustration, she steps up. And then we will see whether freeburg is right or I'm right, whether the populism is really around the left or the populism is really around the silent majority. Where do you got sex? I think
SPEAKER_01: it's, I think it's a very good prediction. In a similar way, I predict that there will be a strange new respect for Bill Clinton in the Democratic Party by the end of next year. Why? Because after the red wave, there'll be a recognition that they need to move towards the center, they need to triangulate. And Clinton was the one who provided the formula for doing this. He dragged the Democratic Party back to the center after they were losing elections. And the other piece of this is going to be that it's already the case in polling that Hispanics and Asian Americans now are swing voters. And I think you're going to see in November 2022, that they go for Republicans in big numbers. And so the idea that the Democratic Party can just coast to election based on demographics, I think that theory is going to be imperiled. Yeah. And so they're going to be looking to it to Clinton and maybe not so much Obama as the as sort of the predicate they should be, you know, aspiring to in the future. I think what's
SPEAKER_04: important about that is those groups of people, I think are offended by the free money gets something for nothing. They're hard working immigrant people who have pride, they don't want handouts. And then you have this left white liberal maniac saying, No, no, you're poor, you need handouts. You don't you shouldn't work. You need handouts. You're, you know, and I just think they don't buy it. And that's why I think they're gonna go to the Republicans because Republicans are hard working and freedom loving. And what was Clinton's big tagline
SPEAKER_01: in his campaign? He said that he supports people who work hard and play by the rules. That was that so great. That's the message that Democrats got to refine right now they seem to be on the side of basically drug addicts. I mean, you know, people who junkies are contributing nothing and pitching tents in the middle of public spaces and you know, participating in open air drug markets. Yeah. What do you got
SPEAKER_05: free bird and sore losers? Don't forget sore losers. Yeah. And
SPEAKER_04: hysterical free bird and hysterical people. I mean, being hysterical just never gonna look if you'll bear with
SPEAKER_02: me I have I have three but I couldn't really pick. So the first one is I think and I shared this on the pod the other day, I think we'll see the start of great global conflict. We often rationalize the series of events that that catalyzed conflict after the fact, rather than recognizing that there was emotional conditioning that allowed it to arise in the first place. I think we're in a state today, where the conditioning is such that we're more inclined to engage in conflict globally than we have been in a very long time. I don't know if it's kind of the conflict meter or what have you. But you know, you could see proxy wars and proxy conflicts that arise sort of like what we're seeing, you know, maybe something in the Ukraine, maybe something related to Taiwan. But this is primarily predicated by the fact that we've got kind of this inflationary environment and the rise of populism will force the kind of domestic policymakers and legislators to say we should do something that's active and something that will allow us to unite our nations to go and get into a conflict somewhere, or more likely to do that than not. And so I would say that the conditioning is there to see something like that happen. And so we're not kind of thinking, hey, next year is going to be a year of war. And that's why it's contrary. And I think that there may be war that we're not kind of paying attention to today, or that will surprise us after the fact. The second thing is, I'd say China may solidify its position next year. And this is going to sound a little crazy as a leader in climate change mitigation, whereas it's historically been considered kind of the primary foe against climate change. And there's a couple of behaviors we've seen come out of China recently that I think number one, remember, China is a very rational actor. They do analysis, they make decisions based on long term investments and thinking. They recently announced that they're going to build 150 new nuclear reactors over the next 15 years at a cost of roughly $450 billion. That's about $3 billion per nuclear power plant. The US is currently spending $30 billion building two power plants in Georgia. So the Chinese have figured it out. They've also publicly declared that they're going to be completely carbon neutral with their economy by the year 2060. And they're making the investments through these nuclear power plants to demonstrate that they're actually on the road to do that. And there are a number of other infrastructure initiatives that are meant to help them achieve significant reductions in in carbon by 2040. So let me just point out why this is important because right now everyone thinks China's the foe. They're causing climate change. They're the biggest problem. Imagine if over the next year, some of what they're doing pays off. And everyone says, my gosh, China is leading the world in climate change mitigation, their influence socially and politically will rise. And this this gives China a very strong kind of position, you know, on a global stage and with kind of people around the world thinking, instead of China being a foe, maybe they're the leader and the US is the laggard. And that creates a my third is very random, which is some sort of natural catastrophe. We never account, you know, all natural catastrophes are very low probability, but very high severity. If you multiply the probability by the severity, you have what's called the expected loss, we always under value the expected loss of massive catastrophes, natural catastrophes. We haven't had one in a while. It's a very low probability bet for me to say, hey, maybe we will. But if we do, it's certainly underappreciated in markets today. And so when these kind of, you know, Black Swan type events occur, did you? Did you watch Don't Look Up on Netflix?
SPEAKER_05: Is that why you're No, what is that? It's a new movie about a
SPEAKER_04: crap. Don't watch it. It's polarizing. Let's leave it out for now. Okay. I'll watch it. It's crap. My most contrarian belief is I think this is contrarian, is that American influence and exceptional exceptionalism is going to soar. I believe that is contrarian. I think we've
SPEAKER_04: empowered this next generation, as I talked about earlier, millennials Gen Z are ready to be independent to build shit. And I think Gen X is going to start taking over from boomers, as is what's happening in this very podcast here as we start to hit our five years as executives. And then all these boomers are retiring, as Chamath has pointed out over and over again, and they're going to pass down their wealth, which then creates a perfect storm of a ton of capital, a ton of energy, lots of new ideas, a different perspective, what are the economy is going to boom. And we will prove once again that we're the greatest country and economy in the world. JK, you're
SPEAKER_02: not you're not a contrarian. You're what we call an optimist. Yeah. Okay. And then I'll add to that. JK, what are we? Are we
SPEAKER_04: Gen X? We're Gen X, yes. And the fighting over COVID abortion, guns, social justice, and all this stuff is so exhausting, not that these are not important issues that I think everybody is going to move to, let's just start respecting and building and solving problems. And I just think American exceptionalism will be all that happens in 2022. I just think that that is my contrarian belief for 2022. Everybody believes it's a primary race. I think everybody believes it's coming apart. I don't think it's coming apart. In a year. I think it's gonna be a great year. I think it's gonna be a great year. Can I give my
SPEAKER_01: second contrarian prediction? Oh, God, here we go. Yes. Okay.
SPEAKER_04: Well, that's good. Here it is. I think the media, the media is
SPEAKER_01: gonna pull a total 180 on COVID. Okay, so after pumping out COVID fear porn for two years, they're gonna change their tune next year. Some of the things you're gonna hear, we need to live with COVID. It can't be eradicated. They're even gonna say it's more like a cold or flu. They're gonna say that politicians can't be expected to stop it. They're gonna memory hold their support for lockdowns. We never supported that. And why is all this? Because we have an election next year and more Americans have already died from COVID under Joe Biden than Donald Trump. That's a pretty amazing hold. What was your term? Yeah, you've never heard
SPEAKER_01: of the term memory hole. It's what the memory hole. memory hole. Got it. Yeah. But did you guys know that that more Americans have already died from COVID under Joe Biden? That's not as stunning. Yeah, it is stunning. Are you sure? Yeah. 100% Now, it's writers. Triple fact check it. Yeah, they
SPEAKER_01: did. They did. No, look, look it up. And it's certainly it's gonna be even more true. It's all the info worse.com. You can
SPEAKER_04: look it up. Omicron wave. Now look, I don't blame Joe Biden
SPEAKER_01: for that. Sorry. Why is that? Because Trump had no vaccine and
SPEAKER_05: Biden has had vaccines and everything else. Maybe it's a
SPEAKER_04: consistency of the consistent, you know, one to 2000 people die
SPEAKER_02: a day 1400 a day. So maybe it's just that consistency in the US. Yeah, I think it's because of the republican states that
SPEAKER_04: refuse to do any medication. Okay, let's keep going. Look, I
SPEAKER_01: don't blame Biden for that. I don't blame any president United States. Nonetheless, Biden campaigned on the idea of these quote unquote, shutting down the virus. He and the democrats claimed that they would be able to eradicate it. That was the entire basis for all these COVID restrictions. Now it's the case that it can't be done. Everyone's realizing that they're gonna have to move the goalposts and memory hole ever saying that. And so the democrats desperately need COVID to be over for the 2022 midterms. Therefore, the media will say it's over. Well, you started to see it already
SPEAKER_05: because the media is probably scratching their head. They were the ones trying to force these lockdowns, you know, basking in the glow of whatever press release the the Centers for Disease Control would put out. And all of a sudden, the CDC just had to do a complete 180. And when they used to force 10 day quarantines, for these positive tests and people with COVID, they just backtrack to five and why was because there's nobody to work. And the Delta CEO asked for it last
SPEAKER_04: week. And now they're I don't know if that's exactly true. But the CDC ultimately really just in the hands of big
SPEAKER_05: business. And so when big business needs these workers to come back, you know, they and it probably pissed off a lot of unions who would have loved to have just had a positive test and stay home forever, the teachers unions, particularly, here we are. So this is a really tough situation. Well, and look,
SPEAKER_01: and to be clear, the message that the media is going to deliver about COVID next year, it'll be the first time I agree with it. But it's completely dishonest of them to pretend like they were never in favor of lockdowns, and they completely inflated the threat and created this whole hysteria. And next year, they're gonna have to back off it also take into account sacks that this new variant is much less deadly. So it would
SPEAKER_04: be logical for people to take a less severe position on it. No, hold on, Jason. We don't know whether there are more
SPEAKER_05: variants to come in the future that we don't want to worse. But we know this one is not subsequently. So the point is, the CDC makes a decision, broadly speaking, about everything. They're not making a decision about omicron. They didn't say if you have omicron, because not as if they really even test for it. I'm just talking to big picture to saxes. The reason they shortened this is because they didn't know what they were doing before. They don't fundamentally know what they're doing. Now. They're making best guesses. And the problem with these best guesses is that they're inaccurate. And it forces enormous amounts of waves of havoc. Every time they make a decision, what I'm talking about, I'm talking about sexist prediction that the media will
SPEAKER_04: flip a logical person, including everybody on this call, because of omicron taking over for delta and being a natural blocker, it would be the logical thing to do. So in defense of the media, which I'm not apt to do, it's logical for everybody to take a different approach right now, because omicron is 40 times more contagious, it blocks delta, and it's become the dominant variant. I think that right now the media is
SPEAKER_05: confused. They're not sure which way to go. So you know, there's a high probability that they tack towards what sax is saying. But if you read the New York Times article, it was through gritted teeth. They presented the fact that the CDC changed the guidelines. If you read that article, it was like pulling teeth. The media can just define that a little bit. It's
SPEAKER_01: everybody but Fox News. Come on. It's the elite prestige media. It's the New York Times, The Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC, on and on and on. Do you think there's a bigger audience with
SPEAKER_02: the aggregate of those publications you just mentioned, or the direct to the consumer publications that are happening on YouTube course, or are they being disaggregated because of
SPEAKER_01: their dishonesty? So does it matter? Yeah, of course, it still matters because they still have a lot of influence. They do. And no offense to everybody on YouTube. But we haven't
SPEAKER_05: gotten yet to the economic viability where enough people on YouTube can cover the broad spectrum of things that are important. And then the mechanisms and incentives to amplify it. So for example, that's a good point. We still need CNN. There was a woman on CNN, Nick, please post the clip that you could we posted in the group chat, talking about the incidence of suicide rates and depression in our children. So what happened when they were locked out of school for two years? Okay, and I am not going to stop talking about this. Because this is the issue of our times. These are our kids. Well, I want to get to underreported stories as well.
SPEAKER_00: Jan. Oh, for me, I mean, I my kids hear me rant about this every day. So I may as well tell you guys it's the crushing impact that our COVID policies have had on young kids and children. By far, you know, the least serious risk of serious illness. But I mean, even teenagers, you know, a healthy teenager has a one in a million chance of getting in and dying from COVID, which is way lower than, you know, dying in a car wreck on a road trip. But they have suffered and sacrificed the most, especially kids in underrepresented at risk communities. And now we have the Surgeon General saying there's a mental health crisis among our kids. The risk of suicide girl suicide attempts among girls now up 51% this year. Black kids nearly twice as likely as white kids to die by suicide. I mean, school closures, lockdowns, cancellation of sports, you couldn't even go on a playground in the DC area without cops scurrying, getting shooing the kids off tremendous negative impact on kids. And it's been an afterthought. You know, it's it's it's hurt their dreams, their future learning loss, risk of abuse, their mental health. And now with our knowledge, our vaccines, if our policies don't reflect a more measured and reasonable approach for our children, they will be paying for our generation's decisions, the rest of their lives. And that to me is the greatest underreported story of the past year. And I don't see it being talked about anywhere. We talked about
SPEAKER_05: it first, you know, I posted that link about the decrease in IQ points. And then we started to talk about it there slowly. Now it's trickling into the mainstream media where they're forced to talk about it. It's not rich kids. It's all of our
SPEAKER_04: house a fantastic clip that CNN clip was fantastic ones who are
SPEAKER_04: the ones who get hit the hardest. They can't do supplemental. They don't just don't don't minimize what this
SPEAKER_05: is. This is every child. Disproportionate. Disproportionate the data was that it's disproportionately affecting minority kids. Yes. And that could be because of the sociology of the parents. But Jason, you can also have rich parents. Okay, Jay. So just say color parents. I'm saying all poor kids, white
SPEAKER_04: poor kids who are in public school, poor kids, they're getting hit minority kids of all kinds. But frankly, the point is
SPEAKER_05: it's all kids of all kinds. Okay, so we don't need to subsegment this to make this issue go away and seem smaller than it is. We have literally put 10s of millions of children. Yes, at risk because of our behavior. Yes. I'm agree with
SPEAKER_04: you. And I'm not trying to minimize it or make it a smaller issue. Your point is that none of the smaller audiences, or
SPEAKER_02: smaller new media folks on YouTube or their podcasting have enough breadth to really make an impact by talking about this topic. Is that what you're saying? That the mainstream media is needed to hit the broad base? No, what I'm saying
SPEAKER_05: is very specific. The people on YouTube cover what the people on YouTube want. Okay, the people on podcasts cover what they want. They're all very narrow, narrow niche. Okay, yeah, there is no set of incentives that then threads that together. And then amplifies in the absence of those two mechanics, right? Those are software mechanics, and economic mechanics that need to get built in. What we lose is signal right that in my opinion, right now, over the last two weeks, is the single most important signal. And it is nowhere except for this one clip on CNN, and the discussion that we had two weeks ago,
SPEAKER_02: because the YouTube I just want to be really clear on this, because the YouTube is full of react videos, right? And video
SPEAKER_05: games, which is fine. And the consumer is talking about this issue and actually holding people accountable. And who's who should be held accountable in every single county, where it was basically a Board of Education that was trying to shut these kids out, who stood up and who told that story, nobody did. And if it was trying to be told, it wasn't amplified correctly enough. And so what happens is after two years of damage to all of our kids, 10s of millions of kids. There's a
SPEAKER_05: couple of fissures. One fissure was on this podcast, which I'm very proud of another fissure was this one few minutes. CBS, CBS, CBS, whatever was a Sunday show. Yeah. But my point is,
SPEAKER_05: these are the things that really matter. And we haven't figured it out. What you're saying. And I think it's a really important
SPEAKER_02: point is that as a YouTuber as a podcaster, you pick your niche that you can hit home on, and you hit home over and over every week. But no one says I'm going to broadly talk about the issues of our time and make sure No, no, that's not true. We do. We
SPEAKER_05: do. But it's a small subset. But it's not a small subset. And I mean, there's more than a million people a week that listen to this. We've we far exceeded MSNBC is average viewership, we're probably going to pass, you know, most CNBC shows and some CNN shows by the end of next year. So we will do it. But there's not enough there needs to be more of us.
SPEAKER_05: We're an opinion show as much you know, we're not a traditional
SPEAKER_02: reporting show, right in the sense that like, go out, gather data and facts and present them or do you disagree with not that they do that anyway? I disagree with that. I disagree. I actually
SPEAKER_05: think we do a decent job of filtering for the truth. And the reason we're able to do that is because of our friendship, we can hold each other accountable and call out the bullshit when we see because we don't have incentives. We don't have
SPEAKER_02: anything to lose, right? I don't think there's one. But I want to
SPEAKER_04: build on something that sack said, see, it is very hard for the media to hold this dissonance, because they're saying everybody needs to shelter in place. COVID is you know, this huge thing, they put the death count, they put the case counter up, they won't talk about debts and ICU, they won't talk about who's getting COVID, because they have an incentive to get more ratings through COVID or Trump. And they took that. And then it's a narrative violation or it's cognitive dissonance. If they say at the same time, everybody needs to shelter in place, this thing is really deadly. But we should send our kids to school. So they couldn't take that position, which is why they're in Texas and sacks and chamath. They couldn't take the position that Oh, well, kids could go to school, because that would go against everybody needs to shelter in place. And they picked, I think COVID is this super deadly thing. Everybody has to shelter in place over
SPEAKER_05: children giving them way too much credit. I think what happened was they had a position to read aggregate, lost power. And they took it that's real sense. They did not think about the true consequences. And it may not have happened at any one reporter level. But when it ladders up to the editorial board and the decisions of the people who run the mass heads of these organizations, they made the decision that currying and organizing power was more important than shining a light to do the right thing. Specifically, in this case, the thing that aggravates me the most is around our kids. Yeah,
SPEAKER_04: I think they were going for ratings. But anyway, we can keep debating it. Well, the one thing we can say for sure is
SPEAKER_01: they created a hysteria, whether their motivation was ratings or power grab or political advantage. There's probably all the above. But the bottom line is they wanted to create a hysteria. And they've been pumping COVID fear porn into the population for the last two years. But my prediction, like I said, is that it all flips next year. Why? Because there's an election. And the way the media figures out what its narrative is going to be is they start with the election result they want. And then they reverse engineer the narrative that they think is going to help achieve that election result. And if it means contradicting what they said yesterday, they will memory hole what they said yesterday in order to get on board with a new narrative. That is what's going to happen.
SPEAKER_05: I do think you're right. But I think I just I want to I don't want to lose this thread because this has nothing to do with COVID. Meaning COVID was a symptom of this. But if you really thought that the organized mainstream media had the right to be you know, has a has a purpose to be on the right side of justice. Where were they when when school boards were stripping out? You know, advanced placement programs for kids? Or where were they when they were shutting kids out? Or where were they when they were engaged in eight hour they can't go against, you know, a male can be on a committee, you know, because he's gay, but he's not, you know, black. I mean, these were the issues that stopped our children from literally walking into the classroom every day.
SPEAKER_05: Well, I mean, they just those stories were not told. And they didn't happen. Just in one place. They happened all across the country. And this is where those folks had a responsibility because they also probably had kids. And they didn't do a thing about it. That one issue for me really drives me crazy. Let me ask a probing question here. We assume we're
SPEAKER_04: going to get out of this, you know, pandemic in 2022. Knock on wood, no more variants. What is the obligation and technique, the strategy to solve what we did to these kids? And I just want to put out there, we don't have to answer it now. But I think we could spend an episode. That's a very difficult question
SPEAKER_02: J Cal that I think you need. So sociologists and psychologists and educators, we also need an internship and ideas and we need
SPEAKER_04: to have a dialogue so we can bring them on. But if we're gonna spend all this money on build back better, how about we build back the 20 last fucking IQ points that these kids have? And then we do something about the depression and anxiety they have. Hallelujah. Jason, we're never gonna get there because
SPEAKER_01: the teachers unions won't even acknowledge that learning loss exists. The leaders need to break the teachers unions period.
SPEAKER_04: Yes. Oh, let me make a prediction in that regard next
SPEAKER_01: year, there's gonna be a ballot initiative in California, to the first school choice. And the way it's going to work is that I think there's something like $13,000 spent per pupil in California. That's right. That's right. There's gonna be there's gonna be a ballot initiative that says that any parent who wants to send their kid to an accredited school can get a voucher for $13,000 from the state. That's just gonna be on the ballot. I competition. Let's go. I predict it will be
SPEAKER_01: the big big election in California and maybe the nation next year. And I think more than 100 million will be spent on both sides of that thing. And I can't predict it's gonna win. I hope it does. This is a topic worth fighting over. This is
SPEAKER_04: something important to fight over. Yes, absolutely. It's school choice because you know what, absolutely. These guys pulled the wool over his eyes, they slipped on the mickey, the hoodwink them, you need choice. We know this as entrepreneurs, if there is no competition, things do not get better. These school unions are complacent. Well, let's make a resolution. Let's make a new year's resolution because I think we
SPEAKER_01: all agree on this. I got approached about this ballot initiative. Let's do it. It's gonna happen. There's gonna be like I said, a major ballot initiative next year for school choice in California. Let's all get money and put it towards get behind it. I'm all in summit profits. We'll put towards this.
SPEAKER_01: Yes, let's do it. Let's pull that up. I'm in. I'm in. Let's
SPEAKER_04: put some money behind this. I want to tell you just to more
SPEAKER_05: personalize this issue because I really think a lot of people listening struggle with this. I entered the pandemic with rules. I had rules about devices, I had rules about, you know, how much time they could be online, I had rules around physical fitness, right? I had rules around diet. And it all went out the window. And it became this thing where it was like, feed them the best they can. Sometimes they eat lunch with us. Sometimes they have to eat lunch by themselves because I'm stuck on some stupid zoom, you know, back to back in these dumb meetings because these kids aren't at school. Their only way to interact with their friends became video games like Fortnite, where they could at least talk to their friends. Yeah, but then it became an addiction where they were doing it for hours and hours. Yeah. And now I'm trying to and you know, they gained weight because they weren't physically active. And I am trying to unwind. As is
SPEAKER_05: not as is my ex wife, we're doing it together as a team. It is so hard, absolutely hard, so hard. What about all these people who don't have the access to the resources that I have to try to unwind this and then what happens is I send my kids to the school and hope they may have a headache. Guess what they get sent home, and then their brother and sister have to get sent home to until you can test and be COVID negative for a day in a row. And so there's yet another day of school loss. Totally. And it's like, this is supposed to be one of the best schools in the country. It's not totally. I think, what is every other school like then if this is what I if this is what my children have to do, I think we should make this we should have
SPEAKER_04: this as a major theme for 2022 for the pod, I think it's educators, and teachers unions accountable, absolutely school
SPEAKER_05: boards accountable all around the country to fix this. This is your responsibility. You need to fix it. Listen, we held police
SPEAKER_04: officers responsible in the last year or two, we've seen this, you know, policing being really like a spotlight put on it. Well, let's put that same spotlight on teachers and administrators and schools. They'll never do it. They'll never do without
SPEAKER_01: competition. That's the only competition that's gonna hold their feet. And you know what, what I learned to build on what
SPEAKER_04: you said was, I just decided to get a teacher and obviously I have the means to do it. It's I know most people don't I certainly didn't have it growing up, we could barely, you know, afford to exist. But I think homeschooling is a viable option. So with that 13k, I can tell you five parents who are in an underprivileged area can take that five times their team and take that's what is that 65k and put it together. And for 65k, they can hire a teacher. And they can do a better job with those parents and a teacher for those five kids. I guarantee it. So let's go to best performing asset of 2022. What do you got your mom? This is simple. This will be battery metals, lithium,
SPEAKER_05: nickel, cobalt, graphite, put it in a basket like you can belong these things and rapid fire sacks. What do you got best
SPEAKER_04: performing? I just said series a venture because it's pretty
SPEAKER_01: unoriginal. It's what I do. I think growth got a little bit overfunded and overheated. And I think the seed stage also there's like so there were so many new seed investors again, it might have been partially because of excess liquidity. So series A is still the choke point. And I think it's still the best area to invest in. Innovations not going to stop, there's gonna be great series A investments next year. I also
SPEAKER_04: picked early stage startups because that's where the magic happens. I picked early stage like right before series A, I think spacking direct listings, raising money, people coming down to do the series B's, all of that is creating a poll for more startups. And the founders are getting very sophisticated in terms of finding product market fit and scaling globally. You know, earlier, and that's what's creating these great big outcomes, whether it was Uber or Facebook, both figuring out and Airbnb how to go global quickly. So my choice for best performing asset of 2022 is still early stage startups. freeburg, what
SPEAKER_02: do you got, obviously, best performing asset in terms of a multiples basis, you're never going to beat seed stage investing, certainly. But, you know, I tried to highlight and continue my kind of contrarian bet that we're going to see increased global conflict next year, again, driven by, you know, incumbents trying to hold on to political office and increase inflation and fueling economic growth and the American response to China. So in a world of increased global conflict, I think, assets that do really well are energy commodities and energy stocks. I recently made a big bet on energy stocks, defense stocks, and it used to be a gold, it could be the case that Bitcoin, you know, sees a role as being a defensive position and portfolios in a world of war and conflict. So those are my kind of macro themes for asset, most anticipated trend of 2022. What do you got your mouth, a
SPEAKER_04: trend you're anticipating in 2022, peer to peer payments, the
SPEAKER_05: destruction of traditional rails, it will come out of Africa. Great. Sax, what do you got? This is where I had the
SPEAKER_01: civil war between progressives and pragmatic liberals. So building on what Chama said, you're already seeing this in the feud between London breed and chase a Boudin that is really gonna I think blossom next year, we have not heard the last of that you saw it in Philadelphia, where the mayor, Michael Nutter took on Larry Krasner, I think you're gonna see it in New York City, between Eric Adams and these Manhattan elites. And you also saw in Washington, DC, where the progressives were blaming mansion for you know, the losing the build back better. So this is a civil war is going to continue and what Chama predicted with AOC versus Schumer would would certainly play into that. So it's grabbed the popcorn. It is the the trend I'm anticipating the most. All right, there you go. Do you anticipate a similar trend with
SPEAKER_04: like the alt right Trump ian's and DeSantis and that kind of thing breaking up? How do you see that playing out? Not yet, because Trump isn't on the ballot in 2022. So I
SPEAKER_01: actually think the Republican Party is going to be surprisingly united in 2022. I think where the trouble might come in is when we have a Republican primary in 2023. And especially if Trump runs, then you know, all hell's gonna break loose. So
SPEAKER_04: who is who are the two people who would be most viable against Trump in that 2023? Ron DeSantis and Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley, that's gonna be that's gonna be fireworks. Freeburg, what do you got to spend a trend, my biggest
SPEAKER_02: anticipated trend for 2022 is going to be a gold rush in biotech into what I think will become the cover story on magazines throughout the year that humans have discovered the fountain of youth. And this will arise from these investments in what are called Yamanaka factor based cell reprogramming methods. I've talked about this on the pot in the past a few years ago. Scientists identified that for chemicals could trigger gene expression and cells and get those cells to effectively revert to being stem cells. And more recently demonstrated that using lower amounts of those chemicals and other what are called kind of epigenetic epigenetic factors can trigger partial cell reprogramming, which causes cells in the body to act youthful. As a result of those discoveries, an absolute gold rush is now underway. More recently, Yuri Milner, Jeff Bezos, arch and others put a billion dollars to seed a new company called Altos Labs to pursue therapeutics in this area. Google has individually funded a company called Calico, led by Art Levinson, the former founder and CEO of Genentech. And just recently, Blake Byers and Brian Armstrong announced their new company called New Limit with $100 million, their own personal capital. All of these companies are pursuing the same effort, which is basically causing cells to be youthful, to regenerate in a youthful way. And as a result, you see kind of organs and systems in the body act more healthily. And there will be magazine covers and 60 minutes articles, stories and all sorts of stuff will start to happen in 2022 saying, Oh my gosh, because the amount of money that's gone in in this year is going to cause breakthroughs and discoveries to start to get published about next year. And when that starts to happen, and the media and the PR cycle start to kick up, you'll see this become the year of Yamanaka factor based reprogramming. And everyone's saying it's gonna be the biggest gold rush in biotech, since recombinant DNA was used by Genentech in the 80s and 90s.
SPEAKER_04: All right, and I had most anticipated trend of 2022 being the accredited investor laws are going to change and evolve and it might just be you take a test, and you're now accredited, it doesn't matter if you won the lottery or you make 200,000 a year, and a legal crypto framework is going to happen, I think at the same time. So those regulations combined are going to empower really interesting capital formation on a global basis, whether it's running a syndicate with everybody in the world, including non accredited investors, or dows, or those two things merging, or as Balaji is talking about, you know, a cap table over here that's mirrored on a blockchain at the same time and people being able to trade their interest in chamat fund or Saxas fund or one of my syndicates with tokens on the internet, and that could become a major unlock. Where you know, if you were in, I don't have a fund, I run a
SPEAKER_05: meager family office. Well, if you were in your earlier funds,
SPEAKER_04: and somebody and there was still stuff trickling to social capital three, the people who have that could sell it back to you or sell it to each other if they wanted to get liquidity. And that's going to be super interesting, especially if it can happen just globally, where some person in China decides they want to have access to us funds, our LPS could just start selling. If it was structured that way, most intense anticipated film TV series media, yada yada for 2020 22. What do you got Yellowstone season nine sex? So I said the
SPEAKER_01: first two episodes. It's really great. I mean, you forget what a
SPEAKER_04: great actor. What's his name is? Kevin Costner. Costner is a
SPEAKER_01: great actor. Yes, Yellowstone is great. I'll be watching next
SPEAKER_01: season. But what I had down here is Thor Ragnarok, the writer director, like what TD is back. If you saw the last Thor movie, Ragnarok Ragnarok, one, the new one is called Thor Love and Thunder. Yeah. And you know, Thor went from being I think one of the most boring Marvel characters in the first two movies to totally being one of the funniest and yeah, you know, most fun in his last movie. So I think that sequel be really good. And then the other one is they're doing a prequel show for Game of Thrones, called House of the Dragon. I'm gonna have to watch that. And then the probably the the Star Wars show I'm looking forward to most would be the obi Wan Kenobi show with you and McGregor. So that looks Anakin, it's been anacond. Yes. And I had as well, the obi Wan
SPEAKER_04: show, the Boba Fett show and the Mandalorian shows all coming back are going to be absolutely bonkers. And then there's also this token series that's coming out the prequel I think that Amazon spending a billion dollars on. And I think that's landing in 2022. What do you got your mouth? It is the all in
SPEAKER_05: summit in Maine, Miami and the the birth of all in media. So I think that we by the end of 2022 will have published content written content, not necessarily by us. Well, but other forms of media interaction that get the truth out to a large swath of humanity. Here we go. This is moving beyond just a couple of
SPEAKER_02: besties doing a podcast during lockdown. What? What? Wait, so all in media? Is that a new acronym? A all in meeting? What
SPEAKER_04: aim? Oh, what are we doing? Should we buy like a cable channel and just go 24 hours? The name is the truth. A media a media. Okay, there you go. I didn't even know this is news to the rest of us. But is building on the media broken? Okay, here we go. Who are you gonna hire? Tucker?
SPEAKER_05: There'll be no shortage of folks who will want to come out of the woodwork to work with us on this. And I think the goal should just be to make sure we figure out what the real North Star is so that we never deviate. And part of the biggest things that we did guys, was not trying to hustle for some few, you know, shackles here or there, which was like, I wanted to, I wanted to, what I talk about, we're gonna talk in a minute about the plan for the purity of not wrapping this thing with crappy ads and all kinds of nonsense is we've never lost our way. We don't need some stupid deal for some crappy media company. We all have independent ways in which we can monetize our lives and our hard work. And so we should come to this to always tell the truth.
SPEAKER_04: I think that that's a one of the I will say one of the great innovations that and decisions that you championed was not putting ads on it. I hear it all the time for people. I'm assuming you from yourself, Jake.
SPEAKER_01: It's an interesting idea where you were you as advertising
SPEAKER_02: basis. Business that's not driven by advertising dollars and not driven by greater by trying to maximize page views and clicks and visits. Then it completely changes the equation of what's possible. I think this was part of the idea of what publicly funded media was supposed to be but it obviously got you know,
SPEAKER_02: maybe a little bit too far. Yeah, it was it's just too Yeah, it's just too well then they started adding ads that are if
SPEAKER_04: you remember that they lost some funding and they're like, okay, we're gonna go for sponsorships. They're not ads or sponsorships and so you're saying we're the new PBS.
SPEAKER_04: No, it's something different. We do this without any expectation
SPEAKER_04: of financial reward. We do it because we enjoy it. And so what
SPEAKER_02: 's up for you? J. Cal? You know, I mean, I have other things that
SPEAKER_04: make money. Thank you very much. Come on. Come on. Come on.
SPEAKER_04: Cloud boop.
SPEAKER_04: So our first deal. I didn't know we were doing this category.
SPEAKER_02: I will doubt it.
SPEAKER_05: Doesn't watch TV. He doesn't. I would like to watch reruns of Doctor Who. What BBC show that
SPEAKER_04: nobody watches? Are you going to recommend? Does it matter? I mean, come on. What show from Finland with subtitles? I don't know. I spent a lot of time watching, like esoteric videos
SPEAKER_02: and stuff I find on YouTube. I really think it's so interesting. It's such a different way of consuming media. Just tell us what video game you're playing. Anderson is
SPEAKER_05: putting out a porno. Oh, I was watching this call. We'll be up a vernacular going up and down in the Louvre watching this movie. What video game are you playing? I called. I called
SPEAKER_04: freeburg on the phone to talk him off a ledge when he was going crazy on the group chat. And he's like, I can't talk him on a video game. What video game is actually playing a video game
SPEAKER_02: by Anna Perna interactive, which is Larry Ellison's daughter's media production company. And apparently I didn't know this. They had a video game arm. And the video games are in the game I was playing was called maquette. And you kind of you kind of have this like interesting movie like poetic experience as you play the game. So it's not really just designed to be action packed. And I don't know, I thought it was a very interesting new way of entertaining. Okay, we can move on. It was highly stimulating. She made a simulation of a
SPEAKER_04: biology lab and you actually get different beaker sizes and you have different sub proteins like you start with, you'll get to
SPEAKER_05: buy all of these lab equipment you want. But it's actually easy. It's kind of like a simulation. It's like the same respond with must first mine it. And the way that you mine is by solving mathematical equation. I made a cruelty free fish device
SPEAKER_04: dish in my laboratory because of the genocide of fish. That was a little controversial take last week. I got DMS for people. That was a spicy take free break. Did you get any blow back from that spicy take last week? The spiciest of the frickin day? I'm actually gonna respond to everyone that sent me
SPEAKER_02: a note directly. Was it really because I people are like,
SPEAKER_04: you're well, I think, well, here's the thing. The comment I
SPEAKER_02: made that I think really triggered people was I said that animal agriculture is worse than human slavery. And maybe I'll just address it now real quick. Yeah. You know, I think the point of view that people took away from that was that I diminished you know, the pain and the resonance in today's kind of socio economic context of human slavery, particularly recently in America. And that wasn't my intention at all. Clearly not your intention. Yeah. What I'm trying to
SPEAKER_02: highlight is, you know, first of all, human slavery has been around as long as humans have been around, right for 10,000 years back to ancient Egypt, the enslavement of humans, the removal of opportunity and freedom granted to every living being is certainly manifest in the form of human slavery. And we kind of take it as a very acute pain point. What I was highlighting is every year, over 100 billion land based animals are killed. And they're born and put in chains and put in jails, and then murdered and eaten by humans as routine. And we don't like lift our head up and recognize just how serious and how skilled this this, you know, this behavior is at the industrialization of this process is really abhorrent. And there's videos you can watch. And I think when you watch them, you'll recognize this is delicious. Yeah, I knew it was
SPEAKER_04: coming. Yeah. Don't do it. She might know. But I do think that
SPEAKER_02: she must, you know, she must voice in this is is really the voice that kept us from ever becoming an issue because it's not human. We don't kind of pay attention to it. Yeah. And I'm just trying to highlight that there is something that is at such an extraordinary scale that we don't pay attention to that one day we'll wake up and we'll be like, Oh my god, how do we miss that complete agreement with you free break if you look
SPEAKER_04: at all life being precious, and you say the life of a cow the life of a dog the life of a human. These are all lives. The scale of suffering is Yeah, these animals, these animals can problem solve, they
SPEAKER_02: can feel emotion, they can recognize, they can recognize things happening to them and to their loved ones and their family members. And I think that in the context of that to cause pain and suffering on those animals and on those creatures Yeah, at the scale that we do is something that's just mind blowing to me. I think that's fair enough. And I expect that one day we will wake up and be like, I cannot believe we let our society do that. But I do think that we need to solve tomorrow's problem, which is how do you make something that's friggin delicious? It's not how do you make it cheaper? Hold on a second. It's not a problem. Like my perspective is
SPEAKER_05: I understand where you're coming from. I respect your point of view. But here's my point of view, which is we evolved to superior superiority in an evolutionary process that was not preordained. Okay. And we are now in a position where we are allowed to consume things that we choose. Now, there is also a claim that you could make that you know what, a tiger or a lion should not be attacking and killing a gazelle, because you know what that's causing suffering to the gazelle or blah blah blah. At the end of the day, how we choose to go and consume the things that we need for sustenance is a choice that we can make. And there are probably better choices we can make over time. But at the end of the day, I think that this was a reasonable evolution of humanity and human ingenuity and intellect. And I don't feel guilty about that. When we went Yeah, I don't weigh the suffering of animals the same way I weigh the suffering of human beings. I don't. And I
SPEAKER_02: would argue that when we were apes in the jungle, and we didn't have the choice, I would wholeheartedly agree with you. But today, we are a people that do have the choice. What choice do you have? And it's because we have the choice to not eat meat and still survive and still be happy that we can make a better choice tastes good. Like there's a part of my soul. I'll just
SPEAKER_05: say that. I agree. And that's why I think we need to solve
SPEAKER_02: that problem. And that's why I believe it's not a problem. If you made an alternative for you that tasted good, and was as affordable as the alternative, which is actually killing an animal, you would choose it. And we haven't given you that solution yet. And when I say we I mean call it the techno food people, but there is a tremendous amount of money going into this area. And we will devise artificially produced meat that will not be made by killing an animal but will be made in a lab that looks identical or a piece of sushi,
SPEAKER_04: just give us a year over and you'll have a piece of sushi in
SPEAKER_02: three years, you will have you will be able to go taste chicken next year, it'll be very, very expensive. Okay. But cell based meat will be available. Let's get it at a commercial scale within our, you know, steak. That's really what it's about.
SPEAKER_04: David, my commitment to you is I will do a taste test whenever
SPEAKER_05: you say you call the new you pick the place the time totally I will show up. And if it's better, I will never eat meat again. Okay, we're not ready. We're not ready for that. And
SPEAKER_02: that's a that's a great commitment. All right. Yeah. I
SPEAKER_04: am similar in the meantime. It's not it's distanced. But I will say freeburg if you're going to have a party and it's only vegan, you need to put that on the invite because I came thinking you were going to see you know, my party there was no meat he was really upset. He was
SPEAKER_02: going around the my party being like what the hell is this? There's no meat. Can you make me a hamburger the woman from
SPEAKER_04: wherever made Napa was like I've never touched meat in 30 years whatever credible ribeye on New Year on Christmas Eve. Oh my
SPEAKER_05: god. All right, everybody for the dictator himself. Chamath
SPEAKER_04: poly hop at Tio with great hair. Touch of gray never looked better. And the Sultan of Science David freeburg and Tucker Carlson's bestie front runner David Sachs super spreading COVID super spreading the truth super spreading the
SPEAKER_01: truth. David from an undisclosed bestie hideaway,
SPEAKER_03: which we all know but we won't say I'm Jake out and we'll see you in 2022. It's been a great year.
SPEAKER_04: Let your winners ride. Rain Man David.
SPEAKER_01: We open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you guys. Queen of Kenai. Besties are gone.
SPEAKER_01: That's my dog. We should all just get a room and just have one big huge door because they're all just like this like sexual tension that they just need to release. Let your beat be. Let your beat be.
